News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/kpBYVz31Bd https://t.co/7EzMPg9Kqg
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/DjMdgL5x19
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/6sqqRfTri2
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/0EFToM5Y8I https://t.co/5gsZQfX6aG
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/D1DxtDkJXd https://t.co/DwkK9F9FCJ
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/30/Gold-Technical-Forecast-Election-Raises-Volatility-Risk-But-Support-Holds.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5hgGEojvIE
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BVoIcR9anM https://t.co/Frmn9y6yKJ
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BNJ5uTKz1A https://t.co/VkvmiwWAtz
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6W76mWMRrJ https://t.co/ukJG4eqDK0
Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

2014-09-26 06:39:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

  • Gold and Silver Find Bids On Safe-Haven Buying As Geopolitical Tensions Flare
  • Crude Oil Supply Glut May Overshadow Russian Production Disruption Fears
  • WTI At A Critical Juncture As Prices Compress Between Key Technical Levels

Gold and silver are edging cautiously higher during the Asian session. This may reflect some repositioning from traders following a period of steep declines for the precious metals over recent weeks. Newswires have also cited that flare-ups in geopolitical tensions may have sparked some safe-haven buying. Such fear-driven flows may hold the potential to yield a corrective bounce. However, as proven in the past they seldom deliver a sustained recovery for the alternative assets.

Over the session ahead the metals may also take some guidance from their pricing currency, the US Dollar. Revised US second quarter GDP data and consumer sentiment figures are set to cross the wires. Amid firming Fed bets it would likely take a material deterioration in the data to dent the USD. Yet at the same time further gains for the greenback are questionable. The reserve currency’s ascent over the past few months may prompt some profit-taking, which in turn could afford the precious metals a consolidation.

Turning to the energy space; concerns over Russian supply disruptions appear to have resurfaced. This follows reports that a bill is in the works to allow the seizure of foreign-owned assets by Moscow. This likely helped natural gas climb by more than 1 percent on Thursday. The energy exporter accounts for roughly one third of Western Europe’s gas imports.

At this stage the potential for severe crimps to Russian crude oil and gas production are likely a longer term consideration. These may be overshadowed in the near-term by lingering concerns over a global supply glut for crude. In turn this could leave the Brent and WTI benchmarks lacking the fuel needed to generate a more meaningful rebound.

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

MARKET MOVEMENTS (THURSDAY 25, CLOSE: 5PM EDT)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

92.86

93.51

92.04

92.44

(0.42)

-0.45%

UK Oil

97.05

97.53

96.21

97.01

(0.04)

-0.04%

Natural Gas

3.897

3.969

3.816

3.96

0.06

1.49%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,216.76

1,224.61

1,206.49

1,221.28

4.52

0.37%

Silver

17.67

17.69

17.32

17.51

(0.16)

-0.93%

Palladium

814.7

814.9

793.6

799.8

(14.90)

-1.83%

Platinum

1,315.90

1,317.00

1,297.90

1,311.70

(4.20)

-0.32%

Copper

3.052

3.062

3.019

3.034

(0.02)

-0.59%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil is having another case of déjà vu as it revisits its descending trendline on the daily. The emergence of another Harami formation suggests the bears may be looking to firm their grip on prices. Alongside a core downtrend on the daily this casts the spotlight back towards the recent lows near 90.45. A daily close above the overhanging trendline resistance would be required to warn of a small base.

Crude Oil: Price Compression Continues As Gaze Returns To Recent Lows

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold is teasing at a break beyond the 1,222 ceiling that has kept the precious metal capped over recent weeks. A daily close above the barrier coupled with the Hammer formation that has emerged, would suggest the potential for a recovery. Yet a strong rebound may be limited given the backdrop of a sustained downtrend and nearby trendline resistance looming overhead. In the alternative scenario, a daily close below the 1,208 floor would open the next leg lower to the 2013 lows near 1,180.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Awaiting Clearance From Congestion Zone Between 1,208 and 1,222

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver’s slide under the 17.75 barrier alongside the continued presence of a downtrend (signaled by the 20 SMA and ROC) leaves the immediate risks lower. A daily close below the 17.30 mark would shift the spotlight to the low seen in late March ’10 near 16.50. A climb over trendline resistance and the 18.19 mark would be required to warn of a base and a sustained recovery for the precious metal.

Silver: Continues Descent Against Broad Bearish Backdrop

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper continues to trade heavily as signs of a short-term downtrend remain intact. A daily close below the 3.01 floor would be seen as a fresh selling opportunity and open a knock on the 2.96 mark.

Copper: Awaiting Close Below Nearby Barrier To Open Next Leg Lower

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The sustained presence of a downtrend for Palladium warns of further weakness for the precious metal. Further, a failure to close above the 820 ceiling alongside a Doji formation indicates hesitation from the bulls to return to the commodity. This leaves it awaiting a daily close below buying interest at 792 to generate a push towards the April lows at 765.

Palladium: Sustained Downtrend Warns Of Further Weakness

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum has achieved the 1,314 target offered in recent reports. This may see the precious metal succumb to some profit-taking and a period of short-term consolidation. A Hammer candlestick offers further evidence that the bears may be losing their grip on the commodity. Yet against a broader bearish backdrop a convincing close below the 1,314 barrier would be seen as a fresh opportunity for short positions. The next downside targets are offered by the July and June 2013 lows at 1,308 and 1,285 respectively.

Platinum: Signs Of Exhaustion Emerge Near 1,314

Gold Regains Footing Before US Data, Yet Is There Room For A Recovery?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES