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Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

2014-08-26 05:18:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
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Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Lacking Fundamental Drive To Inspire A Recovery
  • Precious Metals Suffer As Traders Look Past Geopolitical Turmoil
  • Silver Marching Towards $19.00 Alongside Bearish Tech. Signals

Gold and silver remain in a precarious position as ebbing geopolitical tensions threaten to sap safe-haven demand for the precious metals. The alternative assets suffered marginal declines on Monday as traders continued to look past the latest developments in the ongoing Ukrainian and Iraqi crises.

However, if the US Dollar’s nascent recovery falters it may offer some hope to the metals. Upcoming US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence figures headline the calendar for USD event risk over the session ahead. Yet the leading indicators appear to be more on the periphery for shaping policy expectations. The Fed’s core focus remains on the labor market. This casts some doubt as to whether the upcoming figures could catalyze further gains for the greenback.

Meanwhile, crude oil remains despondent to fresh news flow from the Middle East. This has left the commodity lacking the requisite drive to sustain a recovery. Yet given the magnitude and speed of recent declines traders may be hesitant to lead WTI lower. Which in turn could set the crude benchmark up for a period of consolidation.

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A Harami pattern has failed to find much follow-through for Crude, casting doubt on the potential for a sustained recovery for the commodity. Yet negative momentum also appears to have faded which suggests a consolidative period may be ahead. An eventual resumption of the downtrend is expected while sub the 95.00 handle.

Crude Oil: Lacking Fuel Sub The 95.00 Handle

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The gold bulls have been seemingly uninspired by a key reversal pattern on the daily. A Harami formation has failed to receive confirmation from a successive up-day, which leaves a recovery as questionable. This leaves risks skewed to the downside while below 1,280 and leaves the door open to a knock on 1,241. However, a multi-month low for the ATR warrants some skepticism over a sustained decline, given anemic volatility readings generally do not support breakouts.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bearish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Downside Risks Remain While Sub 1,280

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A descending trendline on the daily continues to keep silver in check as the precious metal descends towards the 19.00 target. However, signs of hesitation from the bears are emerging. This is made evident by the ensemble of Dojis on the daily and fading momentum reflected by the Rate of Change indicator. Yet in the absence of outright bullish reversal patterns the immediate risk remains to the downside.

Silver: Slowly Marching On $19.00 Target

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has vaulted over the critical 3.19 hurdle which may open the door to a retest of the base metal’s recent highs. The reversal follows a Bullish Engulfing formation which helped to signal a shift in sentiment for the commodity.

Copper: Sentiment Shifts As Hurdle Cleared

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palldium’s core uptrend remains intact following a rebound from the 200 SMA and 861 barrier. This casts the spotlight back to the metal’s recent highs at the critical 900 ceiling. A break below the ascending trend channel would be required to warn of a top.

Palladium: Rebounds With Core Uptrend Intact

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum has managed to regain its footing at the 1,412 floor as buying interest is renewed. However, the potential for a sustained recovery may be limited while signs of a downtrend remain intact. This leaves the 1,395 target intact. A climb above the descending trendline would be required to warn of a small base.

Platinum: Targeting 1,395 With Bearish Signals Intact

Gold Vulnerable As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs, Crude Awaiting Fresh Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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