News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here:
  • The US Dollar may seesaw as investors navigate what could be a volatile week packed with US GDP data, rising Covid-19 cases, Q3 corporate earnings and more. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • USD/MXN pushes lower towards a critical support level in the midst of continued political uncertainty. Get your #currencies update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Gold Forecast - via @DailyFX “Gold price outlook still hinges on stimulus deal expectations and corresponding swings in real yields.” What will I have my eyes on in the week ahead? Link to Analysis: $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Talks between the EU and UK restarted today and will continue over the weekend as negotiators from both sides battle against the clock. Get your #currencies update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

2014-06-30 07:01:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

  • Top-tier economic data this week offers volatility catalysts
  • Crude oil vulnerable to correction on unfounded supply fears
  • Silver pullback leaves prices at key support near 20.80

Gold and crude oil are staring down a potentially volatile trading week with an abundance of top-tier economic data on tap alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions. Brent and WTI may be left vulnerable to a further correction as Iraqi supply fears remain unrealized, while gains for gold hinge on soft US data and a continued slide in the greenback.

Iraqi Unrest Leaves Crude Production Unimpeded

Fears over supply disruptions to Iraqi crude production continue to influence oil prices as the unrest in OPEC’s second largest producer shows little signs of resolution. Newswires have reported that rebels seized control of a town less than an hour of Baghdad on Friday, as the latest in a series of attacks in the country’s north.

However, at this stage there are no indications that Iraqi oil supply has been affected by the unrest. Indeed, Ministry of Oil officials last week refuted reports suggesting that the country’s largest refinery is under control of rebel militia. As concerns over crimps to supply ease, this could leave crude prices vulnerable to a correction. Similarly as traders discount the potential for a further escalation in the conflict, gold may fail to find further safe-haven demand.

US Data To Catalyze Volatility

Traders will have a bounty of top-tier economic data to digest over the remainder of the week with US NFPs and ISM Manufacturing Data headlining the docket. Patchy US data prints and guarded comments from Fed officials on the timing of a potential rate hike left the greenback to maintain a downward trajectory over June, which aided gold and silver’s recovery for the month. Silver is set to outperform its bigger brother, with a gain of over 11 percent for the month, its largest monthly percentage increase since August 2013.

A series of better-than-anticipated readings from the world’s largest economy this week could spark a bounce for the greenback and put pressure on the precious metals. However, further follow-through and a shift in tides for the USD ultimately hinges on expectations for more aggressive US monetary policy normalization. In this respect the data may come up short, given an incremental data point is unlikely to yield a more hawkish tone from policy makers at this point.

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap


With the uptrend intact for crude oil, pullbacks to support at 105.00 are seen as an opportunity to enter new long positions. A daily close above nearby resistance at 107.60 would open the psychologically-significant 109.00 handle, while a close below 105.00 would negate a bullish bias.

Crude Oil: Testing Critical Support At 105.00

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Gold may be primed for a push higher given signs of an uptrend have emerged on the daily chart. A break above several resistance levels and spike in volatility also suggests the potential for further gains. The slight pullback to support at 1,310 is seen as an opportunity for new long entries, with a target offered by the April high near 1,330. While several Doji candlesticks hint at hesitation from traders, they alone are not enough to signal a potential correction at this point.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentiment Index suggests a bullish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Support Holds at 1,310

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


The Silver bulls have finally lost steam after the precious metal pushed an extreme number of consecutive positive periods. While a Hanging Man formation suggests the potential for a reversal, with support nearby at 20.80, the extent of a correction may prove limited. Additionally, signs of an uptrend remain as indicated by the 20 SMA and Rate of Change indicator.

Silver: Pullback Finds Support at 20.80

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Copper’s pullback from noteworthy resistance at 3.19 has yielded a Hanging Man formation, which suggests the potential for a correction to 3.10. However, given indications of a short-term uptrend remain intact, a pullback may find little follow-through.

Copper: Hanging Man Hints At A Correction

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Palladium’s break above 836 has nullified a Hanging Man formation on the daily and negates a bearish technical bias for the precious metal. This follows a push above the 20 SMA which signals the potential emergence of an uptrend. Some skepticism for further gains may still be warranted given former trendline support-turned resistance looms nearby.

Palladium: Upside Breakout Negates Bearish Technical Bias

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Palladium continues its ascent towards its range-top near 1,489, which may act to cap further gains. A test of the 1,489 mark and emergence of another bearish reversal pattern would be seen as an opportunity to enter new short positions, with a target offered by support at 1,424.

Platinum: Range-Top To Offer New Short Entries

Gold and Silver Facing Volatile Week With Top-Tier US Data On Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.