News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out:
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

2014-05-15 08:50:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

  • Gold and silver traders hold back ahead of US inflation data
  • Crude oil gives back gains as traders digest overall supply picture
  • Natural gas extends its recent declines ahead of inventories figures

Gold and silver are teasing traders near critical resistance ahead of upcoming US inflation figures. Meanwhile platinum and palladium have broken out to fresh 2014 highs as geopolitical risks fuel concerns over supply disruptions. Finally the energy commodities are giving back yesterday’s gains, with natural gas hitting the lowest level in more than 5 weeks.

Gold Traders Hold Back Ahead of US CPI

Economists are tipping a substantial uptick for April’s year-on-year inflation reading, with a median estimate of 2.0 percent versus a prior print of 1.5 percent. A significant deviation from expectations would likely stir some volatility for the precious metals. An upside surprise in particular would likely strengthen the greenback, based on traders’ potentially bringing forward rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve. However, with policy makers seemingly unconcerned about the relatively benign levels of inflation present in the US economy, a shift in stance is unlikely at this stage, meaning follow-through for any move may prove limited.

Similarly Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s upcoming speech may fail to steal headlines. The central banker is set to deliver an address to the US Chamber of Commerce as part of Small Business Week. Unlike her recent testimony to Congress her comments are unlikely to have the same level of focus on the potential path of monetary policy. Dr. Yellen has remained timid on the topic of a rise in borrowing costs, which has done little to aid the US Dollar’s recovery and has afforded gold and silver some breathing room. Until we see a more hawkish stance and stiffer guidance on rate hikes from FOMC officials, gold may be saved from taking its next leg lower. The yellow metal has fallen by close to $80 from its 2014 high in March.

Supply Fears Push Platinum and Palladium Prices Higher

As noted in recent commodities reports; geopolitical risks have likely helped underpin Platinum and Palladium’s recent push higher. Platinum in particular posted a 1.88 percent rally yesterday, the largest single day gain since Jan 2nd. The rally come as newswires report further disruptions to supply from the ongoing strike by mining workers in South Africa, which accounts for over 80% of global production.

Crude Stumbles As Traders Weigh Production Figures

WTI jumped on the back of the DOE’s Weekly Petroleum Status report which revealed the 5th consecutive decline in stocks at Cushing, OK. However, the gains have proven short-lived as traders likely weigh the overall bearish supply picture for the commodity. The inventories report also revealed a rise in total crude stocks to near-record levels, while crude oil production rose further and is at its highest since 1986. Without a lift in demand, continued increases in total inventory levels would help reaffirm a bearish near-term outlook for the growth-sensitive commodity.

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Natural Gas Slips Ahead of Storage Figures

Natural gas prices have slid to the lowest since April 1st, as traders await the EIA’s Weekly Storage report, which is tipped to show a rise in stocks by the most since September 2013. Another higher-than-anticipated print could put further selling pressure on the energy commodity based on concerns over a glut in supply. While the buildup likely reflects some seasonal factors, a continued rise in inventories would create a bearish case for natural gas.


WTI’s recent recovery leaves a mixed technical bias for the commodity. Prices have pushed above the 20 SMA and the rate of change indicator has shifted into positive territory. However, further gains may be limited given that resistance is looming nearby at 102.30. Additionally, the persistently low levels of volatility (reflected by the ATR) do little to suggest a breakout is on the cards.

Crude Oil: Recovery May Prove Limited With Resistance Nearby

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Several Doji formations on the daily suggest hesitation from the bears as gold teases at a push above critical resistance at $1,305. With volatility remaining low (as reflected on the ATR), the current environment may favor range-trading setups, which is further supported by a lack of momentum signaled by the Rate of Change indicator.

The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Dojis Highlight Trader Indecision

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Silver has edged out a marginal close above resistance at $19.70 following a push off the $19.00 floor. A long upper wick on the most recent daily candle suggests the bulls remain hesitant to push prices higher, which leaves a mixed technical bias for the precious metal.

Silver: Edges Above Resistance at $19.70

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Copper has vaulted above its descending trendline from the 2014 high and cleared a notable resistance level at $3.085. With building upside momentum (as suggested by the rate of change indicator) and prices above the 20 SMA a bullish technical bias is offered. The push above the $3.149 mark opens an extended advance on $3.213 (the 61.8% Fib Retracement level).

Copper: Aims Higher Following Bullish Technical Signals

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Palladium has staged an upside breakout above the critical $815 handle with the uptrend for the precious metal remaining intact. Longs are preferred with a target offered by the August 2011 high near $847.

Palladium: Eyeing August 2011 High Following Breakout

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Platinum has finally broken above the descending trendline from the April 2013 high. With building upside momentum (noted by the rate of change indicator), as well as the simple moving average signaling an uptrend, a bullish technical bias is offered. This leaves longs preferred with an initial target offered by the nearby $1,486 mark, with a break higher to open up $1,535.

Platinum: Finally Breaks Trendline Resistance

Natural Gas Slides Ahead of Storage Report, Gold Traders Await US CPI

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.