News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here: https://t.co/EDvQdHfIPm https://t.co/R7pa7DsM8n
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: https://t.co/bTXkGN1CIM #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/EhdZpmkzaH
  • Even more remarkable than the record high levels of leverage registered in US equities this past week was the attention it garnered. Paying attention to risk is a threat when markets are this high and the docket as dense as it is this week. My outlook: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/01/23/Dow-VIX-Tesla-and-Leverage-Reflect-Greater-Risk-to-the-Relentless-Bull-Market.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/KBOJIRPTQe
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/qP2PbS4dsY
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/POGWDIkqqz
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/H76jNJJxU5
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/1TiEWCbJ6t
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/fN2mfHgpON
Gold and Silver Poised for Spike in Volatility After Fed Meeting

Gold and Silver Poised for Spike in Volatility After Fed Meeting

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

  • Crude Climbs Above $97 on Upbeat Confidence Data
  • Commodities Turn to FOMC for Further Guidance
  • Silver Breakout from Consolidation Looks Imminent

Crude Oil climbed back above the $97 handle as an upside surprise to the January US Consumer Confidence reading buoyed investors’ risk appetite. However, gold was little changed for the session alongside muted moves in the US Dollar. This may reflect some hesitation from traders ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

If the Federal Reserve cuts stimulus by less than the consensus estimate of US$10 billion or suggests a less aggressive “taper” timeline, it may create weakness for the US Dollar and strengthen oil and gold. Conversely if in their statement the central bank appears undeterred by recently disappointing economic data (such as December’s payrolls figures), this could dampen demand for gold as a fiat-money alternative. In either scenario the recent consolidation in prices suggests a potential spike in volatility may occur in the aftermath of the meeting as traders may have a firmer commitment to a directional bias.

While the Fed meeting takes center stage, the Department of Energy Inventories report may provide some additional guidance for the WTI contract. Crude stockpiles are expected to build at their fastest pace since November 2013 and a downside surprise could signal stronger than anticipated demand for the commodity and support oil prices.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Oil’s rebound came at the 38.2% Fib Retracement level, signaling some buying support at $95.29.While recent price action has been suggesting a short-term uptrend is in play, the descending trend line from the Sep 2013 high and the $98.10 level may provide hurdles to additional gains, leaving a mixed technical bias for the commodity.

Gold_and_Silver_Poised_for_Spike_in_Volatility_After_Fed_Meeting_body_Picture_4.png, Gold and Silver Poised for Spike in Volatility After Fed Meeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Following the declines from $1,270 a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formation may be warning of further falls for the precious metal. However the 20 SMA may again provide some buying support for the precious metal, as it has done over the past several weeks leaving a mixed technical bias for the commodity.

Gold_and_Silver_Poised_for_Spike_in_Volatility_After_Fed_Meeting_body_Picture_3.png, Gold and Silver Poised for Spike in Volatility After Fed Meeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver is testing the bottom of the ascending triangle formation on the daily which comes as sellers have kept prices contained within the descending channel. A break to the downside may open up the psychologically significant $19 handle, which offered buying support in December 2013.

Gold_and_Silver_Poised_for_Spike_in_Volatility_After_Fed_Meeting_body_Picture_2.png, Gold and Silver Poised for Spike in Volatility After Fed Meeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technicals are continuing to suggest weakness for copper in the near-term. The Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily has offered a target of 3.15 that is aided by the descending trend channel and prices tracking below the 20SMA. A retracement to the $3.287 neckline (also the 23.6% Fib Retracement level), may be a preferred opportunity to look at shorts.

Gold_and_Silver_Poised_for_Spike_in_Volatility_After_Fed_Meeting_body_Picture_1.png, Gold and Silver Poised for Spike in Volatility After Fed Meeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM Australia

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES