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Crude Oil Vulnerable to Further Selling if US Data Disappoints

Crude Oil Vulnerable to Further Selling if US Data Disappoints

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Declines as Risk Sentiment Continues to Unravel
  • Gold Prices Reverse Following Test of Resistance at $1,270
  • US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders in Focus

Crude oil extended Friday’s push lower as investors’ risk appetite unraveled further, aided by a disappointing set of US New Home Sales figures. The worse-than-expected reading may not be enough to suggest a more material deterioration in the US housing market that could have broader implications for the US economy. As such, traders’ reaction to the data may suggest a heightened sensitivity to negative news-flow, following the recent spike in market volatility.

Gold was also subjected to selling pressure as the precious metal failed to hang onto the rallies witnessed towards the end of last week. This may be a result of traders repositioning themselves ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting which has strong implications for the direction of the US Dollar.

Upcoming US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence figures may test investor sentiment once more. Another disappointing print that continues a string of recent weak readings may spark further declines for oil. Gold may find support however if a soft US data set proves to weaken the US Dollar

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The recent rally in crude has encountered some resistance just shy of the descending trending line from the September 2013 high. A Dark Cloud cover candlestick formation may be warning of further potential declines. Some buying support may exist at the 38.2% Fib Retracement level at $95.29

Crude_Oil_Vulnerable_to_Further_Selling_if_US_Data_Disappoints_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Vulnerable to Further Selling if US Data Disappoints

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS A break above the descending trend line from the January 2013 high, along with a short-term uptrend (signaled by the 20 SMA), are both providing bullish signals for gold. However the precious metal has encountered some selling pressure at $1,270, which represents the 50% Fib retracement level from the October to December 2013 decline. While there is an absence of a strong reversal signal, it may be preferable to wait for clearance of $1,270 before looking at entering new long positions. Support is resting at $1,254.

Crude_Oil_Vulnerable_to_Further_Selling_if_US_Data_Disappoints_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Vulnerable to Further Selling if US Data Disappoints

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The recent consolidation in the silver price has resulted in an ascending triangle formation. The fact that sellers have been unable to push the commodity down to its previous lows may be signaling an imminent upside breakout. A move above the 38.2% Fib retracement level ($20.48) would open up $21.

Crude_Oil_Vulnerable_to_Further_Selling_if_US_Data_Disappoints_body_Picture_2.png, Crude Oil Vulnerable to Further Selling if US Data Disappoints

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Building downside momentum in the recent downtrend is warning of further declines for copper. However buyers sitting around the $3.26 mark may act to provide some near-term support.

Crude_Oil_Vulnerable_to_Further_Selling_if_US_Data_Disappoints_body_Picture_1.png, Crude Oil Vulnerable to Further Selling if US Data Disappoints

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM Australia

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