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Gold Falters Near Resistance, Oil Waits For Cues From German ZEW Data

Gold Falters Near Resistance, Oil Waits For Cues From German ZEW Data

2014-01-21 07:50:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
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Talking Points

  • Commodity markets muted as US holiday dents trading volumes
  • Gold prices are struggling to overcome technical resistance
  • Crude oil and copper may rise on upbeat German ZEW data

Crude oil dipped 0.5 per cent on Monday as traders were tempted to book profits following last week’s gains. After dipping briefly below the $94 figure in early trade, the commodity was left to drift sideways during a quiet US session due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. Low trading volumes and a lack of economic data also kept the gold price contained below critical resistance at $1,256.

Looking ahead, the US data docket remains empty but January’s ZEW Surveyof German investor confidencemay help provide some directional guidance. The forward-looking Expectations index is forecast to rise to 64.0, an eight-year high. That may help drive a pickup in risk appetite and boost assets sensitive to the global business cycle, including oil and copper. As for gold, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index continues to provide a mixed bias based on trader positioning.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Crude continues to show resistance at $94.85 (the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level) while some near-term buying support rests at the monthly low of $91.41. With prices below the 20 SMA and a recent Shooting Star candlestick formation, the technicals are suggesting some weakness may lie ahead for oil

Gold_Falters_Near_Resistance_Oil_Waits_For_Cues_From_German_ZEW_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Gold Falters Near Resistance, Oil Waits For Cues From German ZEW Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is trading near critical resistance at the $1,256 mark as the metal tests the descending trend line from the Jan 2013 high. A failure to stay within the ascending trend channel would warn of a potential shift lower towards support at the 38.2% Fib retracement level (1,230).

Gold_Falters_Near_Resistance_Oil_Waits_For_Cues_From_German_ZEW_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Gold Falters Near Resistance, Oil Waits For Cues From German ZEW Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Sellers have once again emerged at the key resistance zone around $20.48 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). With volatility sitting near its yearly low, range trading strategies are preferred. Buying support remains at $19.

Gold_Falters_Near_Resistance_Oil_Waits_For_Cues_From_German_ZEW_Data_body_Picture_2.png, Gold Falters Near Resistance, Oil Waits For Cues From German ZEW Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Copper prices are consolidating within an Ascending Triangle formation with resistance resting at $3.36. The rate of change indicator is signaling momentum remains to the downside however a Piercing Line candlestick formation is signaling some potential strength, leaving an unclear technical bias.

Gold_Falters_Near_Resistance_Oil_Waits_For_Cues_From_German_ZEW_Data_body_Picture_1.png, Gold Falters Near Resistance, Oil Waits For Cues From German ZEW Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM Australia

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