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Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

2014-01-16 10:00:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points:

  • Investor optimism supporting higher crude and copper prices
  • Renewed pro-taper bets weighing on gold and silver demand
  • Commodities looking to US CPI figures for further bearings

Bullish investor sentiment helped support crude oil and copper prices during US trading hours as the market responded positively to the prospect of continued strong economic growth in the US. This came on the back of strong US corporate earnings and an upward revision to the World Bank’s global growth forecast.

The recovery seen in the energy space did not extend to the precious metals arena as an optimistic economic outlook also supports the continued withdrawal of Fed stimulus, which weighed on demand for gold and silver as fiat-money alternatives.

Upcoming US inflation data will help provide some bearings to the precious metals. An upside surprise to the CPI figure would add to the case for a timely end to QE3, and would likely put selling pressure on gold and silver. Traders can watch the live coverage of the US CPI print on DailyFX Plus at 13:30 GMT.

The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index has shown retail traders have grown further net-long on gold from yesterday warning of some potential weakness for yellow metal.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil has found buying support just above the US$91 handle. A strong up day yesterday provided validation of the piercing line candlestick formation, which suggests further strength may be in store for the WTI contract. However, the 38.2% fib retracement level at 94.85 may slow additional gains for the commodity.

Commodities_Gold_Silver_May_Decline_on_US_CPI_Pickup_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold is showing several bullish technical signals on the daily including a break of the descending trend channel and move above the 20 SMA. Selling pressure around the 1,256 is acting as near-term resistance and support rests at the 1,218 mark.

Commodities_Gold_Silver_May_Decline_on_US_CPI_Pickup_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Volatility remains subdued in silver as the precious metal continues to travel sideways between support at 18.86, and resistance at 20.48 (the 38.2% fib retracement level). Range trading strategies are favored while the commodity continues to drift sideways.

Commodities_Gold_Silver_May_Decline_on_US_CPI_Pickup_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – There are several mixed technical signals that don’t provide a clear bias for copper on the daily. A piercing line formation above support at the 50% fib retracement level (3.273) has warned of a short-term bounce for the commodity. Yet as prices waver around the 20 SMA, the rate of change indicator is signaling momentum may be shifting to the downside and is giving a bearish signal.

Commodities_Gold_Silver_May_Decline_on_US_CPI_Pickup_body_Picture_9.png, Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM Australia

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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