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Gold at Risk Before Jobless Claims Data, Crude Oil Digesting Losses

Gold at Risk Before Jobless Claims Data, Crude Oil Digesting Losses

2014-01-09 11:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Impact of Jobless Claims Data on Fed Outlook in Focus
  • Gold Holding at Support Above the $1200.00/oz Figure
  • Crude Oil in Correction Mode After Hitting Six-Week Low

Gold prices are treading water in European trade as markets await the release of the weekly set of US Jobless Claims figures. Initial applications for unemployment benefits are expected to drop to the lowest in five weeks. This may stand to reinforce yesterday’s supportive ADP employment reading and decidedly hawkish set of FOMC minutes, boosting US yields and the US Dollar while eroding anti-fiat demand for the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, crude oil is retracing cautiously higher after the WTI contract hit a six-week low yesterday. The drop followed an unexpected surge in stockpiles at the pivotal Cushing, Oklahoma storage facility reported in the weekly DOE inventory report. Corrective price action may carry through the remainder of the day but gains may be cut short if swelling QE “taper” bets undercut risk appetite, punishing cycle-sensitive assets.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices fell as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break below support at 92.91, the 38.2% Fib expansion, has exposed the 50% level at 90.50. A further push beneath that targets the 61.8% Fib at 88.08. Reversing back above 92.91 eyes 95.90, the 23.6% level.

Gold_at_Risk_Before_Jobless_Claims_Data_Crude_Oil_Digesting_Losses_body_Picture_3.png, Gold at Risk Before Jobless Claims Data, Crude Oil Digesting Losses

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned higher as expected after putting in a Harami candlestick pattern. A break above resistance in the 1217.75-22.01 area, marked by the December 2 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, has exposed the 38.2% level at 1248.70. A further push beyond that aims for the 1261.28-70.28 region, bracketed by the October 11 swing low and the 50% Fib.

Gold_at_Risk_Before_Jobless_Claims_Data_Crude_Oil_Digesting_Losses_body_Picture_4.png, Gold at Risk Before Jobless Claims Data, Crude Oil Digesting Losses

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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