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Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

2013-09-03 09:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • All Eyes on US ISM Manufacturing Print Amid Fed “Taper” Speculation
  • Soft US Economic Data Likely to Boost Risk Appetite, Commodity Prices
  • Crude Oil, Gold Continue to be Sensitive to Syria-Related Headline Risk

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Commodity prices are little-changed in European trade as investors look past a quiet local economic calendar toward the US data docket, where the release of Augusts’ ISM Manufacturing gauge begins a busy week of high-profile releases amid swirling Fed “taper” speculation. Economists’ forecasts point to a slight slowdown in factory-sector activity after the measure hit a 25-month high in July.

A soft print that is seen as limiting the scope for stimulus reduction is likely to boost risk appetite, offering cycle-sensitive commodities. It is likewise likely to weigh on the US Dollar, generating a corollary advance in the precious metals space. Needless to say, an upside surprise will probably produce the inverse dynamic. It is also important to keep in mind that crude oiland gold remain sensitive to headline risk surrounding the developing situation in Syria. Signs of imminent Western intervention are likely to drive fears of a wider conflict, boosting prices (and vice versa).

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pulled back as expected after showing a Shooting Star candlestick. Sellers have now cleared resistance-turned-support at the top of a Triangle chart pattern (107.76) to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 105.93. A break below that targets the Triangle bottom at 104.00. A move back above the Triangle top exposes the 110.00 figure, followed by the August 28 high at 112.21.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Look_to_US_ISM_Data_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned lower as expected, taking out support at the bottom of a rising channel set from early August to expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1373.79. A break below that aims for the 38.2% level at 1336.79. The channel bottom – now at 1420.18 – has been recast as near-term resistance.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Look_to_US_ISM_Data_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices bounced from falling trend line resistance-turned-support to move toward another test of 24.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 26.78. Trend line support is now at 22.84, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 23.6% Fib at 22.25.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Look_to_US_ISM_Data_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_5.png, Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices pulled back as expected but support seems to have been found anew, with buyers moving to challenge resistance at 3.318 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that targets the 3.377-8 area, marked by a familiar triple top and the 38.2% Fib. Near-term support is at 3.222, the August 30 low.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Look_to_US_ISM_Data_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_6.png, Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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