News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • ECB President Lagarde: - If and when we have a digital Euro, we will also have banknotes - ECB will make decision in the spring whether to go ahead with digital Euro work - Lots of questions remain, is a complicated issue - Is not "about to come," will be years #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - An ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance is critical - Fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary - EU aid package must become operational without delay #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Risks surrounding Euro-area outlook remain tilted to the downside, but less pronounced - Underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued - Inflation is likely to increase in the coming months as pandemic's impact fades #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Lagarde - Downside risks to outlook are less pronounced $EUR
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Resurgence of pandemic has likely led to decline in activity in Q4 2020 - Will also weigh on activity in Q1 2021 - Fiscal policies are supporting households and firms, but consumers are staying cautious #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Lagarde says will monitor developments in the exchange rate Slight change in tone from previously stating they will "very carefully" monitor FX movements
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Euro-area economy contracted in the fourth quarter - Uncertainty remains high - ECB is monitoring exchange rate for its impact on inflation - Ready to use all instruments as needed #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Inflation remains very low in the context of weak demand and significant slack - Data confirms pronounced near-term impact on economy and protracted weakness in inflation - Ample degree of monetary stimulus is essential #ECB $EUR
  • 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (JAN) Actual: 26.5 Expected: 12 Previous: 11.1
Gold Rallies Despite Fed QE Cutback Cues in US Data - Now What?

Gold Rallies Despite Fed QE Cutback Cues in US Data - Now What?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Gold prices shot higher despite US economic data boosting the case for a cutback in Fed QE efforts yesterday. The outlook going forward is clouded in uncertainty.

Talking Points

  • Gold, Silver Prices Rose Despite “Pro-Taper” Economic Data – Now What?
  • Crude Oil on the Verge of Completing a Bullish Continuation Chart Pattern

Commodity prices are treading water in the final hours of the week as markets look to the US economic calendar for direction cues. Yesterday’s news-flow produced somewhat puzzling results: July’s headline year-on-year CPI inflation rate rose in line with consensus forecasts while the weekly Jobless Claims data set surprised to the upside. On balance, these outcomes seemed to fall on the “pro-taper” side of the Fed policy expectations spectrum.

The S&P 500 responded as might have been expected, with the prospect of stimulus withdrawal sending the index to a five-week low. Performance in the commodities space was a somewhat counter-intuitive however. The typically sentiment-geared crude oil and copper prices nudged higher, breaking with the selloff on equity exchanges perhaps most surprisingly however, gold and silver prices shot aggressively higher. Needless to say that amounts to something of an oddity against for a pair of assets whose primary investment appeal is their anti-fiat properties.

This makes for a clouded outlook looking forward. The onus is once again on US data, with July’s Housing Starts and Building Permits figures as well as the preliminary estimate of Augusts’ University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge on tap. Improvements are expected all around, which ought to bolster the argument in favor of a tapering effort in September. What that means for commodity prices in the near term given the current environment is unclear however. For what it’s worth, US stock futures are pointing cautiously higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting at a risk-on mood to close to close out the trading week.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis (WTI) Prices appear to be carving out a Flag chart pattern, indicative of downward correction preceding the resumption of the longer-term uptrend. A push above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 106.04 has exposed the Flag top at the 107.00 figure, with a daily close above that targeting the 38.2% level at 108.40. Alternatively, a move back below 106.04 aims for the August 8 low at 102.21, followed by the Flag bottom at 101.88.

Gold_Rallies_Despite_Fed_QE_Cutback_Cues_in_US_Data_-_Now_What_body_Picture_3.png, Gold Rallies Despite Fed QE Cutback Cues in US Data - Now What?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Gold Technical Analysis (Spot) Prices continued to push higher after breaking resistance at a falling trend line set from early May. Buyers now aim to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1376.28, with a break above that targeting the 76.4% level at 1400.72. Near-term support is at 1356.22, the 50% Fib. A reversal back beneath that exposes the 38.2% expansion at 1336.76.

Gold_Rallies_Despite_Fed_QE_Cutback_Cues_in_US_Data_-_Now_What_body_Picture_4.png, Gold Rallies Despite Fed QE Cutback Cues in US Data - Now What?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Silver Technical Analysis (Spot) Prices took out resistance at 22.25, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 24.75. The 22.25 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a move back beneath that eyeing the 14.6% retracement at 20.70.

Gold_Rallies_Despite_Fed_QE_Cutback_Cues_in_US_Data_-_Now_What_body_Picture_5.png, Gold Rallies Despite Fed QE Cutback Cues in US Data - Now What?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Copper Technical Analysis (COMEX E-Mini)Prices are testing resistance at 3.387, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 61.8% level at 3.482. Near-term support is at 3.292, the 38.2% Fib, with a move back beneath that initially eyeing the top of a recently broken rising channel at 3.251.

Gold_Rallies_Despite_Fed_QE_Cutback_Cues_in_US_Data_-_Now_What_body_Picture_6.png, Gold Rallies Despite Fed QE Cutback Cues in US Data - Now What?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.