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Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed's Bullard for QE3 Taper Guidance

Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed's Bullard for QE3 Taper Guidance

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil and gold prices are looking to comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to guide expectations of a cutback in the Fed’s QE efforts.

Talking Points

  • Commodities Tread Water as Markets Weigh US, Chinese Economic Data
  • Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak to Guide QE3 Taper Expectations

Commodities are treading water in European trade as investors weigh seemingly supportive cues from Friday’s US jobs report – where a better-than-expected print dented fears of an imminent reduction in Fed stimulus efforts – and disappointing Chinese economic data released over the weekend. Beijing reported that exports grew just 1 percent year-on-year in May, marking the smallest increase in 10 months. Separately, Industrial production growth unexpectedly slowed and new Yuan loans tumbled to a three-month low.

A lackluster economic calendar through the rest of the day hints “Fed-speak may ultimately tip the scales to yield near-term direction cues. James Bullard, President of the US central bank’s St. Louis branch, is scheduled to take to the wires. Mr. Bullard is a voting member of the FOMC and traders will want to see if his remarks offer any guidance on a possible reduction in the size of QE3 asset purchases in the coming meetings of the policy-setting committee. Rhetoric advancing the case for a cutback in the pace of easing will probably weigh on cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices as well as reduce anti-fiat demand for gold and silver (and vice versa).

Crude Oil Technical Analysis (WTI)- Prices broke above resistance at 95.71, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 96.72-97.09 area marked by the 50% level and a falling trend line established from mid-September 2012. A break above that targets the 61.8% Fib at 98.47. The 95.71 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back beneath that eyeing the 23.6% expansion at 94.00.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Feds_Bullard_for_QE3_Taper_Guidance_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed's Bullard for QE3 Taper Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Gold Technical Analysis (Spot)- Prices moved lower as expected, taking out rising channel to challenge an upward-sloping trend line set from the April 16 low (now at 1379.23). A break below that initially eyes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1366.43. Channel support-turned-resistance is at 1400.54, with a move above that exposing the 50% Fib expansion at 1413.03.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Feds_Bullard_for_QE3_Taper_Guidance_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed's Bullard for QE3 Taper Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Silver Technical Analysis (Spot)- Prices finally broke out of consolidating, taking out support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (22.03) to expose the 50% level at 21.17. A further push beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 20.31. Alternatively, a move back above 22.03 aims for the 23.6% expansion at 23.10.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Feds_Bullard_for_QE3_Taper_Guidance_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed's Bullard for QE3 Taper Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Copper Technical Analysis (COMEX E-Mini)- Prices are testing below support at 3.241, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A break downward targets the 38.2% level at 3.132. Near-term resistance is at 3.398, the May 8 high.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Feds_Bullard_for_QE3_Taper_Guidance_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed's Bullard for QE3 Taper Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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