News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here:
  • Point 3 is not talked about enough. The bureaucratic - dare I say, Leviathan - in most universities is resulting in tuition prices skyrocketing without adding clear value to the students.
  • Think #amzn will gap higher on Monday after Black Friday and the giant move to online shopping?
  • The exponential moving average (EMA) is a derivative of the simple moving average (SMA) indicator. Compared to the SMA, the EMA weighs recent price changes more heavily than later changes in price. Learn how to incorporate the EMA into your strategy here:
  • Traders in the Euro have a big decision to make this weekend: if EUR/USD hits 1.20, will it continue to advance, consolidate or fall back? Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market's most clear-cut price action signals for reversals and continuation. Learn more about this price action trading signal here:
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here:
  • Defensive stocks have proven critically important when navigating stock market volatility. Find out what are the most defensive stocks here:
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:
  • The MACD is an indicator that uses exponential moving averages (EMA) to determine trend strength along with entry points based on crossovers. Find out how you can use the MACD as a buy/sell signal here:
Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues

Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues

2013-05-21 11:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Commodity prices look to commentary from Fed Presidents Bullard and Dudley to shape QE progression expectations and offer direction cues.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper Wait for Risk Trends to Weigh Up Fed Policy Outlook
  • Gold and Silver Vulnerable if Fed Chatter Hints at Tapering of QE3 Efforts

Commodities treading water in European trade as markets wait for guidance from two prominent monetary policy speeches by St. Louis and New York Federal Reserve Presidents James Bullard and Bill Dudley, respectively. After hearing perennial dove Charles Evans was “open-minded” to the idea of tapering QE3 purchases, investors will look for similar-sounding rhetoric to set the stage for tomorrow’s Ben Bernanke testimony.

If that is to materialize, the subsequent response from financial markets will prove interesting as a pace-setting gauge of whether risk appetite trends (and with them cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper price) will respond favorably to the positive growth implications of firming US recovery or negatively to the prospect of stimulus removal. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting a lack of conviction in the sentiment space and opening the door for volatility. The response from gold and silver is likely to be more straight-forward, with signs pointing to an earlier unwinding of accommodation that previously expected set to erode anti-fiat demand and weigh on precious metals.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis (WTI) - Prices broke above resistance at 96.50, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion (a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from late January). Buyers now aim to challenge the 50% level at 97.85, with a break above that targeting the 61.8% Fib at 99.21. Alternatively, a reversal back beneath 96.50 eyes the 23.6% expansion at 94.82.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Fed-Speak_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Gold Technical Analysis (Spot) - Prices broke above resistance in the 1375.16-77.33 area and completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting at further gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1401.63, with a break above that targeting 1421.26. Alternatively, a reversal back beneath 1375.16 exposes 1340.31.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Fed-Speak_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Silver Technical Analysis (Spot) - Prices are testing support at 22.03, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that targets the 50% level at 21.17. Near-term resistance is at 23.10, the 23.6% Fib, with a turn back above that eyeing the April 26 high at 24.82.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Fed-Speak_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Copper Technical Analysis (COMEX E-Mini) - Prices may be carving out a Head and Shoulders (H&S) bottom chart formation. Confirmation is needed on a close above the pattern’s neckline, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3.388. A break above that initially targets the 76.4% level at 3.469. Near-term support is at 3.322, the 50% Fib. If confirmed, the H&S setup implies an upside target at 3.781.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_Fed-Speak_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.