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Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to US Data for Guidance

Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to US Data for Guidance

2013-04-30 11:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Crude oil and gold prices are looking for April’s US Consumer Confidence report to shape risk sentiment and offer direction cues.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper at Risk if US Data Sparks Renewed Risk Aversion
  • Gold and Silver Outlook Clouded on Sentiment Trends, Fed Outlook

Commodity prices are treading water in European trade as the spotlight turns to US Consumer Confidence figures.Expectations call for a narrow increase to 61.0 in April compared with 59.7 in the prior month. US economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations since late March however, hinting analysts continue to underestimate the degree of slowdown playing out in the world’s top economy and opening the door for a downside surprise.

Such an outcome may weigh on risk appetite, punishing cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices. The implications for precious metals are a bit clouded however. On one hand, a risk-off scenario has scope to boost haven flows into the US Dollar, sending both gold and silver de-facto lower. Coming against the backdrop of the FOMC policy meeting however, a soft print may be interpreted to support the case for continuity of aggressive Fed stimulus, sending the greenback lower and offering support to anti-fiat assets.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $94.50 // +1.50 // +1.61%

Prices pushed higher to test resistance at 94.79, the April 10 swing high. A break higher targets the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 96.96, a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from late January. Near-term support is at 92.62, the 76.4% Fib retracement, with a reversal beneath that aiming for the 61.8% mark at 91.28.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_to_US_Data_for_Guidance_body_Picture_3.png,  Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to US Data for Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1475.93 // +13.83 // +0.95%

Prices broke above resistance at 1469.28, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, as expected. Buyers now aim to challenge the 61.8% level at 1504.14, with a further push above that exposing the 76.4% Fib at 1547.27. The 1469.28 mark has been recast as near-term support. A reversal back beneath that targets the 38.2% retracement at 1434.43.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_to_US_Data_for_Guidance_body_Picture_4.png,  Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to US Data for Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $24.56 // +0.56 // +2.36%

Prices broke resistance at 24.34, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 50% level at 25.05. A further push above that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 25.76. The 24.34 level has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that targeting the 23.6% retracement at 23.46.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_to_US_Data_for_Guidance_body_Picture_5.png,  Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to US Data for Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.226 // +0.040 // +1.26%

Prices are testing resistance at 3.213 the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher targeting the 38.2% level at 3.269. Near-term support is at 3.157, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back beneath that aiming for the 76.4% expansion at 3.087.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_to_US_Data_for_Guidance_body_Picture_6.png,  Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to US Data for Guidance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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