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Crude Oil, Gold May Not Find Support in US GDP Data

Crude Oil, Gold May Not Find Support in US GDP Data

2013-04-26 10:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Crude oil and gold are under pressure as risk appetite unravels into the end of the trading week. A pickup in US GDP growth may do little to offset negativity.

Talking Points

  • Crude oil, Copper Under Pressure as Risk Appetite Unravels Anew
  • Gold and Silver Losses Limited by BOJ-Driven US Dollar Weakness
  • US 1Q GDP Data May Not Help Sentiment Despite Growth Pickup

Commodity prices are under pressure in European trade as risk appetite flounders across the financial markets. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following stocks. Gold and silver are likewise under pressure, although losses are relatively modest as an overnight decline in USDJPY keeps the greenback broadly contained, underpinning anti-fiat assets. S&P 500 index futures are trading lower, hinting the risk-on dynamic is likely to carry forward as Wall Street comes online.

On the economic data front, the spotlight is on the first-quarter US GDP report from here. Expectations suggest output grew at an annualized pace of 3 percent, marking a strong recovery from the paltry 0.4 percent increase recorded in the three months through December 2012. The outcome may not offer much support to risk appetite absent a meaningful upside surprise however.

Much of the weakness that has recently spooked the markets about the prospects for US recovery has come from March data. That means the cumulative GDP figure will be inherently skewed toward the far more encouraging results seen in the first two months of the year. This is arguably old news at this point and may not alleviate worries about another coordinated global downturn in the pipeline.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $93.64 // +2.21 // +2.42%

Prices broke above resistance at 93.05, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 76.4% level at 94.81. A further push above that aims for rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 97.27. The 93.05 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 50% Fib at 91.63.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Not_Find_Support_in_US_GDP_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Not Find Support in US GDP Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1467.88 // +35.93 // +2.51%

Prices are testing above resistance at 1469.28, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break higher on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8%level at 1504.14. Near-term support is 1434.43, the 38.2% Fib, with a break beneath that aiming for the 23.6% expansionat 1391.30.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Not_Find_Support_in_US_GDP_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Not Find Support in US GDP Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $24.40 // +1.21 // +5.23%

Prices are testing resistance at 24.34, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that targets the 50% level at 25.05. Near-term support is at 23.46, the 23.6% level, with a reversal beneath that aiming for the April 16 low at 22.03.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Not_Find_Support_in_US_GDP_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Not Find Support in US GDP Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.238 // +0.080 // +2.53%

Prices are testing resistance at 3.265 the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher targeting the 23.6% level at 3.336. Near-term support is at 3.208, the 50% Fib, with a reversal back beneath that aiming for the 61.8% expansion at 3.151.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Not_Find_Support_in_US_GDP_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Not Find Support in US GDP Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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