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Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil and gold prices are trading higher as a risk-on mood boosts cycle-sensitive assets and weighs on the US Dollar but the landscape is far from clear ahead.

Talking Points

  • Oil, Copper Rise with Risk Appetite But Durable Goods Data a Threat
  • Gold and Silver Find Support in Ebbing Haven Demand for US Dollar

Commodity prices are on the upswing as risk appetite firms across financial markets. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following stocks higher while gold and silver are finding a bit of support on ebbing haven demand for the US Dollar. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat however, hinting leaving the door open for a reversal. A disappointing US Durable Goods print may be enough to tip sentiment into negative territory, but the earnings docket could yet offer a counterbalance in the wake of upside surprises on reports from with cycle-sensitive Procter & Gamble, Ford and Boeing.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $89.18 // -0.01 // -0.01%

Prices broke above resistance at 88.45, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The bulls now target the 38.2% mark at 90.21, with a further push above that aiming for the 50% Fib at 91.63. Alternatively, a move back below 88.45 targets the 14.6% retracement at 87.37.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1413.00 // -13.45 // -0.94%

Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1434.43, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 1391.30, the 23.6% level, with a break beneath that aiming for the April 16 low at 1321.59. Alternatively, a push above 1434.43 aims for the 50% retracement at 1469.28.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $22.96 // -0.48 // -2.06%

Prices found interim support at 22.54, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 23.46, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a break above that initially exposing the 38.2% level at 24.34. Alternatively, a drop below support aims for the 38.2% expansion at 21.66.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.132 // -0.016 // -0.51%

Prices are bouncing from support at 3.080, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion.Near-term resistance is at 3.151, the 61.8% expansion, with a break above that targeting the 50% mark at 3.208. Alternatively, a reversal below 3.080 aims for the 100% level at 2.965.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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