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Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

2013-04-18 10:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Gold and crude oil prices are aiming higher as risk appetite recovers while the US Dollar retreats. A G20 summit beginning in Washington DC is in focus.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper Aim Higher Amid Broad Recovery in Risk Appetite
  • Gold and Silver Find Support on Ebbing Haven Demand for US Dollar

Commodity prices are on the upswing in early European trade as risk appetite mounts a cautious recovery following yesterday’s selloff. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following stocks higher while gold and silver are enjoying de-facto support as ebbing haven demand weighs on the US Dollar.

Looking ahead, the spotlight is on a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, with traders watching the newswires for leaks from the draft communiqué due to emerge at the end of the two-day summit. Comments on the state of the global recovery seem to offer the greatest market-moving potential in the context of mounting concerns that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week.

Supportive rhetoric is likely to underpin a further recovery in sentiment, reinforcing corrective dynamic now in play. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, bolstering the case for a “risk-on” scenario. Weekly US Jobless Claims figures as well as the Philadelphia Fed business confidence survey and the Leading Indicators composite headline the data docket.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $86.68 // -2.04 // -2.30%

Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the underside of a previously broken rising trend line set from the March 4 low. Sellers have now cleared support at 87.38, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 84.04-85.19 area marked by the November 7 and December 11 2012 swing lows. The 87.38 mark has been recast as near-term resistance, with a move back above that eyeing the 61.85% Fib at 89.45.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1376.50 // +8.61 // +0.63%

Prices are staging a shallow recovery from support at 1341.88, the 114.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 1376.93, the 100% level, with a break above that exposing the 1400/oz figure and the 76.4% Fib at 1433.58. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 123.6% Fib at 1320.28.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $23.33 // -0.08 // -0.32%

Prices found interim support at 22.54, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 23.46, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a move back that initially exposing the 38.2% level at 24.34. Alternatively, a drop below support aims for the 38.2% expansion at 21.66.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_2.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.188 // -0.118 // -3.57%

Prices are testing below support at 3.151, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 76.4% level at 3.080. A break below the latter barrier aims for the 100% Fib at 2.965. Near-term resistance is at 3.208, the 50% expansion, with a reversal back above that targeting the 38.2% mark at 3.265.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_1.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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