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Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Gold and crude oil prices are aiming higher as risk appetite recovers while the US Dollar retreats. A G20 summit beginning in Washington DC is in focus.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper Aim Higher Amid Broad Recovery in Risk Appetite
  • Gold and Silver Find Support on Ebbing Haven Demand for US Dollar

Commodity prices are on the upswing in early European trade as risk appetite mounts a cautious recovery following yesterday’s selloff. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following stocks higher while gold and silver are enjoying de-facto support as ebbing haven demand weighs on the US Dollar.

Looking ahead, the spotlight is on a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, with traders watching the newswires for leaks from the draft communiqué due to emerge at the end of the two-day summit. Comments on the state of the global recovery seem to offer the greatest market-moving potential in the context of mounting concerns that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week.

Supportive rhetoric is likely to underpin a further recovery in sentiment, reinforcing corrective dynamic now in play. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, bolstering the case for a “risk-on” scenario. Weekly US Jobless Claims figures as well as the Philadelphia Fed business confidence survey and the Leading Indicators composite headline the data docket.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $86.68 // -2.04 // -2.30%

Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the underside of a previously broken rising trend line set from the March 4 low. Sellers have now cleared support at 87.38, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 84.04-85.19 area marked by the November 7 and December 11 2012 swing lows. The 87.38 mark has been recast as near-term resistance, with a move back above that eyeing the 61.85% Fib at 89.45.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1376.50 // +8.61 // +0.63%

Prices are staging a shallow recovery from support at 1341.88, the 114.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 1376.93, the 100% level, with a break above that exposing the 1400/oz figure and the 76.4% Fib at 1433.58. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 123.6% Fib at 1320.28.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $23.33 // -0.08 // -0.32%

Prices found interim support at 22.54, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 23.46, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a move back that initially exposing the 38.2% level at 24.34. Alternatively, a drop below support aims for the 38.2% expansion at 21.66.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_2.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.188 // -0.118 // -3.57%

Prices are testing below support at 3.151, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 76.4% level at 3.080. A break below the latter barrier aims for the 100% Fib at 2.965. Near-term resistance is at 3.208, the 50% expansion, with a reversal back above that targeting the 38.2% mark at 3.265.

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Aim_Higher_as_Risk_Appetite_Recovers_body_Picture_1.png, Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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