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Crude Oil, Gold May Resume Selloff on Fed Beige Book

Crude Oil, Gold May Resume Selloff on Fed Beige Book

2013-04-17 09:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Crude oil and gold prices may come under renewed selling pressure if the Fed Beige Book survey points to an unraveling US recovery and sinks risk appetite.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper at Risk if Fed Beige Book Rekindles Risk Aversion
  • Gold and Silver to Resume Selloff if Haven Flows Boost the US Dollar

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions.Investors will look at the release in the context of growing fears about the health of the global economy that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week. Signs of a slowdown mirroring recently disappointing US economic news-flow may reapply downward pressure on sentiment,punishing cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices. Gold and silver may likewise come under fire as haven flows buoy the US Dollar, applying de-facto selling pressure on anti-fiat assets. S&P 500 index futures are pointing firmly lower in early European trade, reinforcing the case for a risk-off scenario.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $88.72 // +0.01 // +0.01%

Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the underside of a previously broken rising trend line set from the March 4 low. Initial support has been found at 87.38, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term resistance is at 89.45, the 61.8% level, with a reversal above that eyeing the 50% Fib at 91.13. Alternatively, a push downward through support targets swing lows at 85.19 and 84.04.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Resume_Selloff_on_Fed_Beige_Book_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Resume Selloff on Fed Beige Book

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1367.89 // +19.94 // +1.48%

Prices are staging a shallow recovery from support at 1341.88, the 114.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 1376.93, the 100% level, with a break above that exposing the 1400/oz figure and the 76.4% Fib at 1433.58. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 123.6% Fib at 1320.28.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Resume_Selloff_on_Fed_Beige_Book_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Resume Selloff on Fed Beige Book

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $23.41 // +0.65 // +2.83%

Prices broke support at 24.00, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 123.6% mark at 21.32. The 24.00 figure has been recast as near-term resistance. A move back above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 26.68.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Resume_Selloff_on_Fed_Beige_Book_body_Picture_2.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Resume Selloff on Fed Beige Book

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.306 // +0.034 // +1.04%

Prices are testing below support at 3.265, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward exposes the 50% level at 3.208. Near-term resistance is at 3.336, the 23.6% Fib, with a move back above that eyeing a falling trend line now at 3.418.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_May_Resume_Selloff_on_Fed_Beige_Book_body_Picture_1.png, Crude Oil, Gold May Resume Selloff on Fed Beige Book

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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