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Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

2013-04-11 11:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Crude oil may fall amid deterioration in risk appetite while gold gains on Fed QE continuity bets if weekly US jobless claims data proves disappointing.

Talking Points

  • Gold, Silver May Rise as Dovish FOMC Minutes Stoke Anti-Fiat Demand
  • Crude Oil and Copper Look to Earnings Docket to Establish Risk Trends

Commodity prices are little-changed ahead of the US trading session. A relatively quiet economic calendar is headlined by weekly Jobless Claims figures. Economists’ forecasts call for a slight improvement on the closely-watched Initial Claims print, but a downside surprise in line with the deterioration in US news-flow relative to expectations since late March seems like a distinct possibility. Such an outcome may weigh on risk appetite, pushing cycle-linked crude oil and copper prices lower. A soft print may be supportive for gold and silver however, reinforcing Fed QE continuity expectations and thereby amplifying anti-fiat demand while compounding overnight pressure on the US Dollar.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $94.64 // +0.44 // +0.47%

Prices broke above resistance at 93.91, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 38.2% level at 95.13. A further push beyond that targets the 50% level at 96.11. Alternatively, a reversal back beneath 93.91 aims for the April 5 low at 91.95.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1558.54 // -26.80 // -1.69%

Prices recoiled from resistance at 1586.48, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, taking out support at 1565.69 marked by the 38.2% level. Sellers now aim to challenge the 50% Fib at 1458.89, with a drop below that eyeing the 61.8% expansion at 1532.09. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1565.69 exposes 1586.48 anew.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.63 // -0.37 // -1.30%

Prices rebounded as expected, completing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and taking out resistance at 27.48, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. The bulls are now challenging the 23.6% level at 28.01, with a further push above that aiming for the 38.2% mark at 28.86. The 27.48 level has been recast as near-term support. A turn back beneath that eyes the April 4 low at 26.63.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.418 // -0.024 // -0.70%

Prices are correcting cautiously lower following an expected rebound. Sellers are testing below resistance-turned-support at 3.420, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, eyeing a formerly broken channel top at 3.388 and the 14.6% level at 3.376. A break below the latter level exposes the April 4 low at 3.305. Alternatively, a turn back above 3.420 aims for the 38.2% retracement at 3.491.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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