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Gold May Rise on FOMC Minutes, Oil Eyes Earnings Docket

Gold May Rise on FOMC Minutes, Oil Eyes Earnings Docket

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Gold may rise as a dovish set of FOMC meeting minutes boosts anti-fiat demand. Crude oil looks to the fourth-quarter earnings docket to yield risk trend cues.

Talking Points

  • Gold, Silver May Rise as Dovish FOMC Minutes Stoke Anti-Fiat Demand
  • Crude Oil and Copper Look to Earnings Docket to Establish Risk Trends

Commodity prices are little-changed in European trading hours, with prices in consolidation mode as markets digest yesterday’s gains. Looking ahead, the spotlight is on minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting. A dovish tone against the backdrop of last week’s disappointing ISM and NFP data would reinforce the view that Ben Bernanke and company are in no hurry to slow their aggressive stimulus efforts. That may weigh on the US Dollar and boost anti-fiat demand for gold and silver.

On the earnings front, reports from alcohol beverage maker Constellation Brands Inc and discount retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc may offer insight on the health of the US consumer against the backdrop of fiscal austerity following January’s payroll tax hike and the recent onset of “sequester” spending cuts. Industrial and construction supplies provider Fastenal Co will be looked upon as a gauge of overall global growth trends. Encouraging cues in line with the tone set by Alcoa Inc earlier in the week may boost risk appetite, offering a lift to cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $94.20 // +0.84 // +0.90%

Prices bounced from support at 91.96, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 94.35, marked by the underside of a formerly broken rising trend line and the 23.6% level. A break above that broadly exposes falling trend line at 97.52. Alternatively, a reversal beneath support targets the 50% expansion at 90.03.

Commodities_Gold_May_Rise_on_FOMC_Minutes_Oil_Eyes_Earnings_Docket_body_Picture_3.png, Gold May Rise on FOMC Minutes, Oil Eyes Earnings Docket

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1585.34 // +11.71 // +0.74%

Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Hammer candlestick. The bulls have now cleared the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1583.37, exposing the 14.6% level at 1596.19. A further push above that aims for rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1604.64. The 1583.37 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a move back below that eyeing the 38.2% Fib at 1562.58.

Commodities_Gold_May_Rise_on_FOMC_Minutes_Oil_Eyes_Earnings_Docket_body_Picture_4.png, Gold May Rise on FOMC Minutes, Oil Eyes Earnings Docket

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.99 // +0.68 // +2.50%

Prices rebounded as expected, completing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and taking out resistance at 27.76, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. The bulls now aim to challenge the 23.6% level at 28.46, with a further push above that aiming for the 38.2% mark at 29.59. The 27.76 level has been recast as near-term support. A turn back beneath that eyes the April 4 low at 26.63.

Commodities_Gold_May_Rise_on_FOMC_Minutes_Oil_Eyes_Earnings_Docket_body_Picture_5.png, Gold May Rise on FOMC Minutes, Oil Eyes Earnings Docket

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.442 // +0.070 // +2.08%

Prices are moving higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, taking out resistance at the top of a falling channel set from late February and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 3.420. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 3.491. The 3.420 level has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back beneath that aiming for the April 4 low at 3.305.

Commodities_Gold_May_Rise_on_FOMC_Minutes_Oil_Eyes_Earnings_Docket_body_Picture_6.png, Gold May Rise on FOMC Minutes, Oil Eyes Earnings Docket

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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