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Crude Oil Gains on Alcoa Earnings, Gold Treading Water

Crude Oil Gains on Alcoa Earnings, Gold Treading Water

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil gains with risk appetite on Alcoa Inc earnings report, gold and silver treading water ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting minutes release.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil and Copper Rise as Alcoa Earnings Boost Risk Appetite
  • Gold, Silver in Consolidation Mode Ahead of FOMC Minutes Release

Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices are on the upswing, tracking a recovery in risk appetite in European trading hours. The advance seems to reflect an upbeat earnings release from aluminum producer Alcoa Inc, which reported results that topped expectations and offered relatively upbeat forward guidance. The cycle-sensitive company is often cited as a bellwether the path of global economic performance expectations. S&P 500 index futures are pointing higher, arguing for more of the same as Wall Street comes online. Gold and silver prices are treading water, with consolidation appearing likely as investors wait for tomorrow’s release of minutes from the March FOMC meeting to get a gauge on anti-fiat demand. The weekly set of crude oil inventory figures from API headlines an otherwise lackluster economic calendar.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $93.36 // +0.66 // +0.71%

Prices bounced from support at 91.96, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is in the 94.09-35 area, marked by the underside of a formerly broken rising trend line and the 23.6% level. A reversal back above that aims for a falling trend line at 97.54. Alternatively, a drop below support targets the 50% expansion at 90.03.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gains_on_Alcoa_Earnings_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Gains on Alcoa Earnings, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1573.64 // -7.52 // -0.48%

Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Hammer candlestick. The bulls are now testing the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1583.37. A break above that aims for the 14.6% Fib at 1596.19 and trend line support-turned-resistance at 1603.27. Near-term support is at 1562.58, the 38.2% level.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gains_on_Alcoa_Earnings_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Gains on Alcoa Earnings, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.31 // -0.02 // -0.06%

Prices rebounded as expected, completing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern to hint at further gains ahead. Near-term resistance is at 27.76, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the 23.6% level at 28.46. Near-term support is at 26.63, the April 4 low.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gains_on_Alcoa_Earnings_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil Gains on Alcoa Earnings, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.372 // +0.028 // +0.84%

Prices are recovering as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick above support at the bottom of a falling channel set from late February. Initial resistance is at 3.404-20 area, marked by the channel top and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that initially targets the 38.2% level at 3.491. Near-term support is at 3.305, the April 4 low.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gains_on_Alcoa_Earnings_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil Gains on Alcoa Earnings, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.