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Crude Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if ISM Data Outperforms

Crude Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if ISM Data Outperforms

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil prices may find support as gold comes under pressure if the March US ISM Manufacturing report yields a better than expected outcome.

Talking Points

  • Oil, Copper and Silver Decline as Asian Economic Data Weighs on Risk Appetite
  • Gold May Come Under Pressure if ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises to the Upside

Sentiment-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are under pressure in early European trade as risk aversion carries over from Asian hours following disappointing Chinese and Japanese economic data releases. In the precious metals space, gold is treading water while silver continues to reflect a greater sensitivity to risk trends, trading down along with cycle-linked assets. Indeed, the correlation between the gold/silver ratio and our in-house sentiment gauge is -0.58 on 20-day studies.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the US ISM Manufacturing data, where expectations point to a slight slowdown in sector activity in March. US economic data has tended to outperform relative to expectations over the past month however according to data compiled by Citigroup, however. More of the same this time around may help improve investors’ mood and cap risk aversion, pushing shares higher and offering support to oil, copper and silver. Implications for gold are somewhat clouded, but a particularly strong release may weigh against expectations for continued aggressive Federal Reserve stimulus and apply downward pressure on the benchmark anti-fiat asset.

Want to see economic data releases directly on your charts? Try this App.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $97.23 // +0.65 // +0.67%

Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% expansion, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 96.08. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_if_ISM_Data_Outperforms_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if ISM Data Outperforms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1598.75 // +1.93 // +0.12%

Prices are testing at a rising trend line set from late February (1595.41), with a break lower targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.17. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1637.49.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_if_ISM_Data_Outperforms_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if ISM Data Outperforms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.46 // +0.11 // +0.39%

Prices are testing below support at 28.28, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that exposes the 38.2% level at 27.62.Near-term resistance remains in the 29.42-92 area, with added reinforcement found at a falling trend line set from late November 2012 (now at 29.98).

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_if_ISM_Data_Outperforms_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if ISM Data Outperforms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.402 // -0.042 // -1.22%

Prices are testing below support at 3.398, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 38.2% level at 3.339. A break beneath the latter barrier exposes the 50% Fib at 3.292. Near-term resistance is at 3.434, the 14.6% expansion.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_if_ISM_Data_Outperforms_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if ISM Data Outperforms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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