News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Bitcoin bears exert force, driving Bitcoin back below the 50k psychological level BTC/USD support showing around a Fibonacci level. Get your $btc market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/2Kf1ZV0PjC https://t.co/B3XO6V3QYD
  • Time to break out some ratios like commercial real estate property tickers (eg $SPG) relative to Amazon ($AMZN) or Carnival Cruise ($CCL) relative to Netflix ($NFLX)
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.42% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.54% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.59% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/VvEMwfDftX
  • Rising yields (the aggregate yield I mentioned earlier is overlaid and inverted in red here) is dragging gold lower. The 60-day correlation (3 trading month) between $GC_F and yields is the strongest net negative since Oct 2019 https://t.co/Myo0FlsvJA
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.42% Silver: -0.47% Gold: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fxdEWv4bfo
  • The Australian Dollar now risks a deeper March correction with the AUD/USD price reversal approaching multi-month uptrend support. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/jYfBrd5b22 https://t.co/tbU9BM3n3L
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.43%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/W16EBX7wwK
  • US equities end the day mixed, as market participants continue to rotate $DOW 31801.91 +0.97% $SPX 3821.22 -0.54% $NDX 12299.0 -2.92% $RTY 2202.99 +0.49% $VIX 26.24 +6.41%
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.01% France 40: -0.28% Germany 30: -0.29% FTSE 100: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/LqhrKYMQFh
  • US Dollar strength continues, as USD/CHF surpasses 0.935 $USDCHF https://t.co/5RDZfc5tCp
Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look for Cues in US Retail Sales Data

Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look for Cues in US Retail Sales Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil and gold prices are looking to the US Retail Sales report for direction cues as a correction in risk appetite threatens to strike the markets.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil and Copper Look to US Retail Sales Data to Refuel Risk Trends
  • Gold, Silver May Pull Back if Better US Data Weighs on Anti-Fiat Demand

Commodity prices are in consolidation mode as markets wait for February’s US Retail Sales data to cross the wires. Expectations call for an increase of 0.5 percent from the prior month. A print in line with expectations would fall broadly in line with trend averages and seems unlikely to yield a significant response from financial markets. That will leave the door open for cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices to decline along with a broad-based correction in risk appetite playing out on Asian and European bourses. S&P 500 index futures are pointing sharply lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street.

With that in mind, US economic data has increasingly outperformed relative to expectations since early February (according to data from Citigroup), opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may drive optimism about the resilience of the US recovery in the face of mounting fiscal headwinds, boosting risk sentiment anew. That is likely to bode well for crude oil and copper. Meanwhile, gold and silver may pull back if improving US economic news continues to fuel speculation about an earlier-than-expected unwinding of Federal Reserve stimulus efforts and dent anti-fiat demand (although for our part, we are sceptical of the markets’ post-NFP Fed views).

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $92.54 // +0.48 // +0.52

Prices continue to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Buyers are now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 92.73, with a break above that targeting the 50% level at 93.78. Near-term support is at 91.43, the 23.6% Fib. A turn beneath that eyes the March 4 low at 89.34.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_for_Cues_in_US_Retail_Sales_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look for Cues in US Retail Sales Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1592.80 // +11.25 // +0.71%

Prices broke above resistance at 1585.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 1604.84. A further push above that aims for the 50% Fib at 1620.28. The 1585.81 has been recast support, with a turn back beneath that eyeing the 14.6% retracement at 1574.06.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_for_Cues_in_US_Retail_Sales_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look for Cues in US Retail Sales Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $29.15 // +0.19 // +0.65%

Prices continue to consolidate above support at 28.46, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is in the 29.42-92 area, with a break higher exposing a falling trend line now at 30.64. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 38.2% level at 27.86.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_for_Cues_in_US_Retail_Sales_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look for Cues in US Retail Sales Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.554 // +0.036 // +1.02%

Prices are testing above resistance marked by a formerly broken rising trend line set from early June and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 3.536.A break higher on a daily closing basis exposes the February 28 high at 3.601. Near-term support is at 3.495, the 38.2% Fib.A drop beneath that targets the 50% level at 3.463.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Prices_Look_for_Cues_in_US_Retail_Sales_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look for Cues in US Retail Sales Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES