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Crude Oil May Correct Lower, Gold Treading Water

Crude Oil May Correct Lower, Gold Treading Water

2013-03-12 10:17:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Crude oil prices may fall amid a larger correction in risk appetite across financial markets. Gold prices remain locked in a familiar consolidation range.

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil and Copper May Fall Amid Correction in Risk Appetite Trends
  • Gold, Silver Continue to Drift Sideways in Familiar Consolidation Ranges

Commodity prices are in consolidation mode as markets wait for a defined catalyst to spark directional momentum. S&P 500 index futures are pointing cautiously lower, hinting cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices may face some selling pressure as Wall Street comes online. The lull in event risk means the onset of risk aversion could materialize amid profit-taking as investors digest recent volatility. Still, conviction seems limited for now and it is questionable whether there is enough follow-through to yield a break from recent ranges. The API set of weekly crude oil inventory numbers amounts to the only mention-worthy item on the data docket.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $92.06 // +0.11 // +0.12

Prices continue to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, taking out initial resistance at 91.43 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fib at 92.73. The 91.43 level has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back below that eyeing the March 4 low at 89.34.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Correct_Lower_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil May Correct Lower, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1581.55 // +2.75 // +0.17%

Prices continue to consolidate above support at 1570.37, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 1589.36, the 23.6% level, with a break above that aiming for the February 26 high at 1620.09. Alternatively, a break downward initially aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1554.62.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Correct_Lower_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil May Correct Lower, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.97 // -0.02 // -0.07%

Prices continue to consolidate above support at 28.46, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is in the 29.42-92 area, with a break higher exposing a falling trend line now at 30.71. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 38.2% level at 27.86.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Correct_Lower_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil May Correct Lower, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.518 // +0.008 // +0.23%

Prices continue to oscillate above support at 3.495, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward targets the 50% level at 3.463. Near-term resistance is marked by a formerly broken rising trend line set from early June, now at 3.530, and the 23.6% expansionat 3.536. A push above the latter level is eyes the February 28 high at 3.601.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_May_Correct_Lower_Gold_Treading_Water_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil May Correct Lower, Gold Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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