News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on Soft Services ISM Data

Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on Soft Services ISM Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil may fall while gold prices advance as risk appetite falters anew after soft service-sector ISM data reboots fears about US resilience ahead of further austerity.

Talking Points

  • Commodity Prices Broadly Higher as Risky Assets Correct After Yesterday’s Selloff
  • Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains if Soft Services ISM Triggers US Austerity Fears

Commodities are on the upswing heading into the opening bell in North America, with a sharp pickup on S&P 500 futures reinforcing the case for upside follow-through as Wall Street comes online. The newswires are teeming with plausible explanations for the advance, from better-than-expected European PMI figures to a narrowing Eurozone bond yield spreads. Capital flows seem like the most plausible driver however, with global markets correcting after the MSCI World Stock Index recorded the largest daily drop in three months.

The chipper mood may not prove lasting however as traders begin to fret about the ability of the US recovery to withstand added austerity with just over three weeks left until a “sequester” spending cuts deal is due. A slowdown on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite survey may act as the trigger, with service-sector activity expected to slow for the first time in 3 months. Such an outcome stands to weigh on sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices. As we discussed yesterday though, it may buoy precious metals.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $96.17 // -1.60 // -1.64%

Prices broke lower as expected, taking out the bottom of a Rising Wedge chart formation, after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Sellers now target the 93.40-94.61 area, with a break below that exposing trend line resistance-turned-support at 91.74. The Wedge bottom (now at 97.78) has been recast as resistance. A reversal back above that aims for the January 30 high at 98.21.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_Soft_Services_ISM_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on Soft Services ISM Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1673.70 // +6.25 // +0.37%

Prices continue to hover above rising trend line support dating back to mid-May (1656.78), with a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. Near-term resistance is at 1690.39, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by a falling channel top at 1696.74. Alternatively, a drop below support targets the January 4 low at 1625.69 and the channel bottom (now at 1598.77).

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_Soft_Services_ISM_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on Soft Services ISM Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.75 // -0.08 // -0.24%

Prices are edging higher in a narrow upward-sloping channel. Near-term resistance lines up in the 32.65-77 area, marked by a horizontal pivot and the channel top. A break above that aims for the upper boundary of a larger channel top at 33.37. Near-term support is at 31.05, with a drop below that aiming for the 30.00 figure and the major channel bottom at 29.14.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_Soft_Services_ISM_Data_body_Picture_2.png, Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on Soft Services ISM Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.768 // -0.016 // -0.42%

Prices are testing resistance at 3.778, the top of a Rising Wedge pattern and the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that targets the 61.8% level at 3.820. Near-term support is at 3.736, the 38.2% Fib, with a reversal back below that aiming for the Wedge bottom at 3.667.

Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_Soft_Services_ISM_Data_body_Picture_1.png, Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on Soft Services ISM Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.