We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/IkL6eYc0eq
  • Are recent gains in the Indian Rupee and Nifty 50 warranted? Risks are brewing in the background, leaving USD/INR in a consolidative setting as the Nifty pressures resistance. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/svDaSdprvN https://t.co/dkQtNiE1fs
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/hiWxPVFdMv
  • S&P 500 bulls in command, #Nasdaq 100 produces “V” shaped recovery, while #FTSE 100 extends . Get your #equities market update from @daniele recovery https://t.co/mbWlBUItWv https://t.co/N64fXcj97Y
  • Crude #oil prices await the #OPEC+ meeting where record output cuts could be prolonged as demand for energy from the US and China continues recovering. What could be the downside risks? https://t.co/M8BORPx4sH https://t.co/3kHHeibDb9
  • The risk rally continued in a big way this week and #Euro bulls have remained in-charge against the US Dollar and Japanese #Yen. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/o7vPmczvMJ https://t.co/GX2YTXz83u
  • The price of #gold may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior in June as the pullback from the yearly high ($1765) reverses ahead of the May low ($1670). Get your Gold market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/OeaYtCpcIo https://t.co/UQVPIVCTCP
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/GzEp3gCAe5
  • US equities continue to run higher with the Nasdaq 100 setting a fresh all-time-high, not even three months after giving back almost a third of its value in about a month. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/e9FvSLqfaA
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
Oil at Risk as US Austerity, Spain Scandal Spook Markets

Oil at Risk as US Austerity, Spain Scandal Spook Markets

2013-02-04 10:48:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Crude oil may fall as worries about the recovery implications of US spending cuts and a corruption scandal in Spain drive down market-wide risk appetite.

Talking Points

The economic calendar is quiet to start the trading week, with nothing noteworthy except December’s US Factory Orders on the docket. The lull in data-linked event risk may open the door for traders to begin considering the “sequester” spending cuts due to trigger at the end of the month in the US. While another last-minute deal to dull the impact similar to deal done on tax hikes at the turn of the year seems likely, some amount of additional austerity is almost certainly in the cards.

Overall US economic news-flow has increasingly disappointed relative to expectations over recent weeks, raising concerns about the recovery’s ability to withstand any material fiscal tightening. Such worries have scope to begin feeding risk aversion, which may weigh on sentiment-sensitive crude oil and copper prices. Worrying headlines out of Europe are reinforcing the negative mood, with calls for the resignation of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy over corruption allegations pushing up borrowing costs.

The implications for gold and silver are somewhat clouded. However, it seems feasible that a significant deterioration in sentiment that forces a correction in USDJPY may produce broader-based US Dollar weakness that boosts precious metals. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat however, offering no clear direction conviction driving risk trends ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $97.77 // +0.28 // +0.29%

Prices appear to be carving out a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation, with a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern and negative RSI divergence hinting the turn lower may be just around the corner. A break of wedge support at 97.36 targets the 93.40-94.61 area. Near-term resistance is at 98.21, the January 30 high, with a reversal above that eyeing the 100.00 figure and the September 14 top at 100.40.

Commodities_Oil_at_Risk_as_US_Austerity_Spain_Scandal_Spook_Markets_body_Picture_4.png, Oil at Risk as US Austerity, Spain Scandal Spook Markets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1667.45 // +3.80 // +0.23%

Prices continue to hover above rising trend line support dating back to mid-May (1655.63), with a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. Near-term resistance is at 1690.39, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by a falling channel top at 1698.28. Alternatively, a drop below support targets the January 4 low at 1625.69 and the channel bottom (now right at the 1600/oz figure).

Commodities_Oil_at_Risk_as_US_Austerity_Spain_Scandal_Spook_Markets_body_Picture_3.png, Oil at Risk as US Austerity, Spain Scandal Spook Markets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.83 // +0.37 // +1.18%

Prices are edging higher in a narrow upward-sloping channel. Near-term resistance lines up in the 32.65-75 area, marked by a horizontal pivot and the channel top. A break above that aims for the upper boundary of a larger channel top at 33.38. Near-term support is at 30.99, with a drop below that aiming for the 30.00 figure and the major channel bottom at 29.15.

Commodities_Oil_at_Risk_as_US_Austerity_Spain_Scandal_Spook_Markets_body_Picture_2.png, Oil at Risk as US Austerity, Spain Scandal Spook Markets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.784 // +0.052 // +1.39%

Prices are testing resistance at 3.778, the top of a Rising Wedge pattern and the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that targets the 61.8% level at 3.820. Near-term support is at 3.736, the 38.2% Fib, with a reversal back below that aiming for the Wedge bottom at 3.663.

Commodities_Oil_at_Risk_as_US_Austerity_Spain_Scandal_Spook_Markets_body_Picture_1.png, Oil at Risk as US Austerity, Spain Scandal Spook Markets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.