News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.003%) S&P 500 (+0.073%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.021%) [delayed] -BBG
  • (Sentiment Weekly) Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc Analysis: USD/JPY, USD/CHF May Fall as Long Bets Rise #Yen #Franc $USDJPY $USDCHF https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/04/14/Japanese-Yen-Swiss-Franc-Analysis-USDJPY-USDCHF-May-Fall-as-Long-Bets-Rise.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/6EXLAB614y
  • Retail traders appear to be reducing long exposure in the Euro after recent gains. This hints that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may rise in the near term, but could this trend last down the road? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Y1d4DXeKEE https://t.co/JmGCbxkfWp
  • Gold Prices Probe Barrier as Inflation Data Sinks the USD and Yields https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/14/Gold-Prices-Probe-Barrier-as-Inflation-Data-Sinks-the-USD-and-Yields-.html https://t.co/bdNaQQsMqu
  • The Indian Rupee rose as the Nifty 50 slightly fell after the RBI left benchmark rates unchanged despite recent weakening inflation and a massive fiscal spending plan. Will USD/INR bounce? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/SwufKMOwfQ https://t.co/R2XfXKiRT5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gxv7FwyhsM
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.50% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.26% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hQBjkAnaA1
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.35% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.06% Wall Street: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VrybX61UEU
  • British Pound Price Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Poised to Extend Climb - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2021/04/14/British-Pound-Price-Outlook-GBPUSD-GBPJPY-Poised-to-Extend-Climb.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GBP $GBPUSD $GBPJPY https://t.co/rDOIqMJQfk
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DYCLXAFcCr https://t.co/q3hRzYvE7n
Commodities: Gold, Oil Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to Bernanke

Commodities: Gold, Oil Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to Bernanke

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil and gold prices appear vulnerable amid a broad-based correction in risk sentiment trends as markets await remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke.

Talking Points

  • Commodities Rise in Asia, Europe as Risk Trends Find Support to the Start Week
  • Sentiment May Stumble as US Austerity Fears Return, Bernanke Remarks in Focus

Commodities are trading higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street on the back of swelling risk appetite at the open of the trading week in Asia.The newswires are attributed firming sentiment to expectations of a pickup in economic growth to be revealed in fourth-quarter GDP figures on tap on Friday. That seems like a flimsy reason in and of itself for continued upward momentum, however.

The economic and earnings calendars offer no meaningfully headline-grabbing event risk. This shifts the spotlight to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is due to speak at the University of Michigan on the outlook for monetary policy, the global recovery, and the long-term challenges facing the US.

Borrowing costs have edged higher since the beginning of the year and central bank chief may take this opportunity to talk up dangers to the recovery and the need for accommodation, denting bets on an early end to asset purchases that emerged after December’s FOMC minutes revealed the discussion surrounding the adoption of the “Evans rule”.

Bernanke is likewise likely to sound off on headwinds from US fiscal policy however, reminding traders of the impact of US austerity on global growth as debates over the “debt ceiling” and the “sequester” loom. While this somewhat clouds the likely sentiment implications of his remarks, the environment seems generally fruitful for corrective risk aversion after the S&P 500 shot up to a four-month high along a near-vertical trajectory. On balance, this warns that a move downward in commodity prices may be the path of least resistance.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $93.56 // -0.26 // -0.28%

Prices took out trend line resistance set from late February, initially exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 94.15. A break above that targets the 76.4% level at 96.54. The trend line (now at 92.93) has been recast as support, with a drop back below that aiming for the 50% level at 92.22.

Commodities_Gold_Oil_Vulnerable_as_All_Eyes_Turn_to_Bernanke_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities: Gold, Oil Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to Bernanke

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1662.80 // -12.65 // -0.76%

Prices are wedged between a major rising trend line set from mid-May 2012 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1674.78. Resistance is reinforced by a falling trend line established from the November 23 2012 high. A break higher exposes the 50% Fib at 1689.95. Alternatively, a push below the trend line (now at 1645.35) targets the channel bottom at 1617.73.

Commodities_Gold_Oil_Vulnerable_as_All_Eyes_Turn_to_Bernanke_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities: Gold, Oil Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to Bernanke

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

Spot Silver (NY Close): $30.47 // -0.39 // -1.27%

Prices are testing above resistance at 30.96, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a barrier reinforced by falling channel support-turned-resistance set from late November. A break above that exposes the 50% level at 31.50. Near-term support is at 30.29, the 23.6% retracement.

Commodities_Gold_Oil_Vulnerable_as_All_Eyes_Turn_to_Bernanke_body_Picture_2.png, Commodities: Gold, Oil Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to Bernanke

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.654 // -0.056 // -1.51%

Prices broke support at 3.671, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 50% level at 3.620. A push below that targets the 38.2% Fib at 3.568. Alternatively, a reversal back above 3.671 aims for the 76.4% retracement at 3.734.

Commodities_Gold_Oil_Vulnerable_as_All_Eyes_Turn_to_Bernanke_body_Picture_1.png, Commodities: Gold, Oil Vulnerable as All Eyes Turn to Bernanke

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES