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Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Soar as Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Deal

Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Soar as Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Deal

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Commodity prices are pushing aggressively higher as markets enter the new year after US lawmakers reached a last-minute deal avoiding the “fiscal cliff”.

Talking Points

  • Commodities Soar After Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Compromise
  • US Data May Amplify Risk Appetite on Pickup in Manufacturing

Commodities are trading sharply higher as markets return from the New Year holiday amid a broad-based surge in risk appetite after the US Congress reached a last-minute deal averting the so-called “fiscal cliff”. Growth-linked crude oil and copper prices are following Asian and European stocks higher while gold and silver have reversed course upward as the chipper mood dents haven demand for the US Dollar, offering de-facto support to assets priced in terms of the benchmark currency.

S&P 500 index futures are trading aggressively higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, arguing for more of the same ahead. US ISM Manufacturing data may reinforce this dynamic, with forecasts pointing to a return to expansionary territory with a print at 50.4 in December after a disappointing 49.5 result in the prior month.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $91.82 // +1.02 // +1.12%

Prices are pushing aggressively higher, testing through rising channel top resistance to target the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 93.25. A break above that aims for the 123.6% level at 94.51. Near-term support is in the 91.54-92.01 area, marked by the 76.4% Fib and the channel top.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Soar_as_Congress_Secures_Fiscal_Cliff_Deal_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Soar as Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Deal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1673.78 // -1.57 // -0.09%

Prices are testing through resistance at 1680.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that exposing the 50% level at 1694.82. Near-term support is at 1663.46, the 23.6% retracement.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Soar_as_Congress_Secures_Fiscal_Cliff_Deal_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Soar as Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Deal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

Spot Silver (NY Close): $30.35 // -0.01 // -0.03%

Prices are pushing higher, with buyers aiming to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 31.42. A break above that targets the 50% level at 31.99. Near-term supports at 30.29 and 30.72, the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibs respectively.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Soar_as_Congress_Secures_Fiscal_Cliff_Deal_body_Picture_2.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Soar as Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Deal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.652 // +0.062 // +1.73%

Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-September (now at 3.697), with a break higher exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 3.718. Near-term supports are at 3.680 and 3.643, marked by the 50% and 38.2% levels respectively.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_Soar_as_Congress_Secures_Fiscal_Cliff_Deal_body_Picture_1.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Soar as Congress Secures Fiscal Cliff Deal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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