News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts @ddubrovskyFX and @FxWestwater on JPY with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today. https://t.co/xpwkc39X5M
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.75%, while traders in USD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 73.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6bUTL5FBE8
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.16% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ljUgiY0Okl
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.18% Wall Street: 0.16% FTSE 100: 0.06% Germany 30: -0.01% France 40: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/iW9yhyAQz7
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn more about controlling greed here: https://t.co/5GXReUsKRj https://t.co/mO5zLx9fYU
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/h4IobFxst9
  • Earnings will remain a key theme ahead with AMZN and AAPL due to follow GOOG's and MSFT's failure to push a Nasdaq 100 to record highs while the ECB will follow in the BOC's and Brazil hawkish policy mix. That said, I'm watching the Dollar most closely: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/10/28/Nasdaq-100-Fails-to-Break-Despite-Google-EURUSD-Will-Struggle-for-Break-Despite-Heavy-Event-Risk.html https://t.co/dyXrxok07K
  • 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision Actual: -0.1% Expected: -0.1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report due at 03:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision due at 03:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -0.1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-28
Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold at Risk as S&P 500 Setup Hints at Weakness

Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold at Risk as S&P 500 Setup Hints at Weakness

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Crude oil and gold prices may decline as S&P 500 positioning warns of risk aversion ahead that sinks growth-linked assets and boosts the US Dollar.

Talking Points

  • Commodities Adrift as Risk Trends Weigh Euro FinMin Summit, US Data
  • Crude Oil, Copper Vulnerable as S&P 500 Chart Points to Risk Aversion
  • Gold and Silver to Decline if Risk-Off Mood to Boost US Dollar Demand

Yesterday’s Eurozone finance ministers’ summit on Greek bailout funding ended in disappointment, failing to stamp out skepticism of policymakers’ crisis management efforts. Meanwhile, October’s Durable Goods report registered better than economists expected. The gauge printed unchanged compared with expectations calling for a 0.7 percent decline. This has left commodities adrift as risk appetite trends look for a clear directional bearing. S&P 500 technical positioning warns of a pullback ahead however. Such a scenario – if it materializes – is likely to translate into weakness in sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices, while gold and silver face de-facto selling pressure as haven flows buoy the US Dollar.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $87.74 // -0.54 // -0.61%

Prices are consolidating below resistance at 89.48, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Initial rising trend line support is at 87.22, with a break below that exposing the November 7 low at 84.04. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 38.2% level at 92.88.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_at_Risk_as_SP_500_Setup_Hints_at_Weakness_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold at Risk as S&P 500 Setup Hints at Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1748.65 // -4.35 // -0.25%

Prices appear to have carved out a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern confirmed with a close above neckline resistance at 1737.28, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The setup implies a measured upside target at 1802.06. The 1737.28 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break below that aiming for the 38.2% Fib at 1688.65.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_at_Risk_as_SP_500_Setup_Hints_at_Weakness_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold at Risk as S&P 500 Setup Hints at Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

Spot Silver (NY Close): $34.16 // +0.07 // +0.20%

Prices are testing resistance at 34.18, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that exposes the 50% level at 35.29. Near-term rising trend line support is at 33.12 and is reinforced by the 23.6% Fib at 32.84. A drop below the latter level aims for the November 5 low at 30.65.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_at_Risk_as_SP_500_Setup_Hints_at_Weakness_body_Picture_2.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold at Risk as S&P 500 Setup Hints at Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.536 // +0.008 // +0.23%

Prices are consolidating below resistance at 3.540, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Initial support lines up at 3.487, the 23.6% level, with a break below that aiming for rising trend line support at 3.412. Alternatively, push above 3.540 targets the 50% Fib at 3.588.

Commodities_Crude_Oil_Gold_at_Risk_as_SP_500_Setup_Hints_at_Weakness_body_Picture_1.png, Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold at Risk as S&P 500 Setup Hints at Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES