News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/FFMy5O9YoY
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/jZHcyAZ5SU
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfV5wS6 https://t.co/Iw9haaHAnn
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/raO3gCGqQ6
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/rWVlBs6H3c
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
Commodities Look to US Home Sales, German CPI to Drive Risk Trends

Commodities Look to US Home Sales, German CPI to Drive Risk Trends

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper May Advance as US New Home Sales Hit 28-Month High
  • Gold and Silver to See Support if Risk Appetite Recovery Weighs on US Dollar
  • Sentiment May Strengthen if Soft German CPI Drives Hopes for ECB Stimulus

Commodities pushed higher as expected through much of the US trading session on the back of broadly better-than-expected economic data set but gains were swiftly erased toward the end of the session after the Fed’s Charles Plosser came across the wires. The President of the central bank’s Philadelphia branch said the newly-initiated QE3 stimulus effort won’t boost employment and endangers the Fed’s credibility.

Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to US New Home Sales figures. Expectations call for a print at 380,000 in August, marking the highest reading since April 2010. The outcome may boost hopes that a firming US recovery will be better able to offset a recession in the Eurozone and slowdown in Asia this year, stoking risk appetite and driving growth-geared crude oil and copper prices higher. Gold and silver may likewise find support in such a scenario amid ebbing haven demand for the US Dollar.

In the interim, the preliminary set of September’s German CPI figures headlines the European data docket. Forecasts suggest the benchmark inflation rate will drop to 2 percent, backing away from the four-month high at 2.1 percent recorded in the prior month. A print in line with expectations would fall in line with the year-to-date average and probably pass with little fanfare. A significant downside surprise may prove sentiment-supportive however as investors build hopes for additional ECB easing.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $91.37 // -0.56 // -0.61%

Prices broke below support at 91.56, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the next downside objective at 88.83 (the 50% Fib). The 91.56 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting the underside of a rising channel set from early July, now at 95.34.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Home_Sales_German_CPI_to_Drive_Risk_Trends_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Look to US Home Sales, German CPI to Drive Risk Trends

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1760.65 // -3.80 // -0.22%

Prices continue to stall after taking out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1756.34 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1725.87 and 1687.84, the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements respectively.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Home_Sales_German_CPI_to_Drive_Risk_Trends_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Look to US Home Sales, German CPI to Drive Risk Trends

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $33.76 // -0.23 // -0.68%

Prices turned lower from resistance at 34.80, the 76.4%Fibonacci retracement. Initial support lines up in the 32.93-33.14 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level and the 61.8% Fib, with a break below this boundary exposing the 50% level at 31.79. Alternatively, a break above resistance aims to challenge 36.89.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Home_Sales_German_CPI_to_Drive_Risk_Trends_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Look to US Home Sales, German CPI to Drive Risk Trends

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.758 // +0.026 // +0.70%

Prices continue to stall below resistance at a falling trend line set from early February (3.830). A break higher exposes swing highs at 3.955 and 3.988. Near-term support lines up at 3.707, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A push below that targets the 38.2% level at 3.627.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Home_Sales_German_CPI_to_Drive_Risk_Trends_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Look to US Home Sales, German CPI to Drive Risk Trends

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES