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Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces

Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces

2012-08-09 09:38:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

Commodities are little changed in European hours as risk sentiment trends parse conflicting cues after Chinese economic data stocked stimulus expectations while the Augusts’ ECB monthly report saw a downgrade to the bank’s growth outlook. Taken collectively, the Eurozone is the world’s second largest economy; China is the third-largest. This makes for a clouded view on global growth expectations as traders weigh a deepening slump in the former with the possibility of accommodation in the latter.

S&P 500 stock index futures are effectively flat ahead of the opening bell, offering little guidance for the coming hours. Weekly US jobless claims figures headline the economic calendar, with expectations pointing to a slight pickup in initial and continuing applications or benefits. If that proves to tip the scales into risk-averse territory, growth-linked crude oil and copper prices are likely to follow shares higher while gold and silver come under de-facto selling pressure as haven demand boosts the US Dollar.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $93.35 // -0.32 // -0.34%

Prices are testing resistance in the 93.21-90 area marked by the July 19 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break higher exposes the 61.8% Fib at 97.82. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant 90.00 figure and is reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 89.87. A push below that targets a rising trend line now at 88.01.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Outlook_Mixed_as_Risk_Trends_Parse_Conflicting_Forces_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1612.13 // -0.07 // 0.00%

Prices are testing resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area after bouncing from support at a rising trend line support set from late June, with a Shooting Star candlestick followed by a Doji pointing to fading bullish conviction and hinting a pullback may be ahead. A break to the upside initially exposes 1671.49. Trend line supports line up at 1590.14 and 1572.56.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Outlook_Mixed_as_Risk_Trends_Parse_Conflicting_Forces_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.05 // -0.09 // -0.31%

Prices took out resistance at 27.68, with the bulls now aiming at 28.44. A break above that exposes 29.42. The 27.68 level has been recast as support, with break back below that targeting 26.75.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Outlook_Mixed_as_Risk_Trends_Parse_Conflicting_Forces_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.422 // -0.018 // -0.52%

Prices are testing 3.435 after breaking above resistance in the 3.378-90 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and a horizontal pivot level. Continued gains from here target 3.535. The 3.378-90 area has been recast as support, with a break back below that targeting 3.300.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Outlook_Mixed_as_Risk_Trends_Parse_Conflicting_Forces_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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