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Commodities Rise on Risk Appetite Recovery, Earnings Docket in Focus

Commodities Rise on Risk Appetite Recovery, Earnings Docket in Focus

2012-07-25 11:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

Commodity prices are pushing higher amid a broad-based recovery in risk appetite. Growth-geared crude oil and copper are following shares higher while gold and silver are on the upswing as ebbing haven demand weighs on the US Dollar. S&P 500 index futures are pointing firmly higher, pointing to more of the same ahead as Wall Street comes online.

On balance, the chipper mood appears corrective after yesterday’s sharp drop across the spectrum of risky assets. Indeed, a disappointing UK GDP print and a resoundingly weaker than expected German IFO business confidence reading published in early European hours hardly seem like supportive catalysts. The longevity of the upswing is likely to depend on the day’s busy earnings docket, with guidance from cycle-sensitive names like Caterpillar and Visa in focus. US New Home Sales data is also on tap, with expectations pointing to a print at 371,000 to mark the highest outcome since April 2010.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $88.50 // +0.36 // +0.41%

Prices are testing support in the 87.65-88.32 area, marked by the July 3 closing high and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward initially exposes the 23.6% level at 85.37. Near-term resistance lines up at 93.21, the July 19 high.

Commodities_Rise_on_Risk_Appetite_Recovery_Earnings_Docket_in_Focus_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Rise on Risk Appetite Recovery, Earnings Docket in Focus

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1580.95 // +4.00 // +0.25%

Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at 1588.90. A break higher exposes falling trend line resistance now at 1605.44. Near-term support lines up at 1574.53. A breach below that initially targets 1561.05, followed by the 1522.50-32.45 area.

Commodities_Rise_on_Risk_Appetite_Recovery_Earnings_Docket_in_Focus_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Rise on Risk Appetite Recovery, Earnings Docket in Focus

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $26.99 // -0.05 // -0.19%

Prices continue to tread water above support is at 26.75. A break below that exposes the multi-month triple bottom at 26.05. Trend line resistance is now at 27.37, with a breach above that exposing the July 3 high at 28.44.

Commodities_Rise_on_Risk_Appetite_Recovery_Earnings_Docket_in_Focus_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Rise on Risk Appetite Recovery, Earnings Docket in Focus

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.354 // -0.026 // -0.77%

Prices took out support at 3.378, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, and are now testing a rising trend line capping the downside since early June. A break below that exposes the 38.2% level at 3.268. The 3.378 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting 3.445.

Commodities_Rise_on_Risk_Appetite_Recovery_Earnings_Docket_in_Focus_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Rise on Risk Appetite Recovery, Earnings Docket in Focus

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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