News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/nHXiNJhLes
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/h0TmJcZeqr
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/sphxUAW9TB https://t.co/ZhsTeJOOM8
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/qP96xmgDVn
  • The pro-risk Australian Dollar may extend gains after the record miss in US jobs data, amplifying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and keeping the Dow Jones and S&P 500 intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/yf8mPX3O3W https://t.co/uCCmjaxUhF
  • Who else is keeping close tabs on Dogecoin $DOGE this weekend? All eyes on Elon Musk @elonmusk, the proverbial 'Dogefather,' and his Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl performance kicking off at 11:30PM ET. The #crypto is already looking nice and perky following that trendline break! https://t.co/nrQsnlUqWj https://t.co/4lOz6NLQTG
  • There is some very interesting event risk over the opening half of this coming week of trade. It starts with Elon Musk hosting SNL tonight for Dogecoin traders and moves into US inflation data to as means to stir the ongoing Fed debate and Dollar https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/LXhjv7ToWC
  • It was a big week for Gold bulls and Gold prices broke out to fresh two-month-highs, finally taking-out the 1800 level along the way. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/D222Ni37Dv https://t.co/KcMYyx3Ro4
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/PjywaPeUsl
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/AjOSPzOFLb
Commodities May Weaken on Fading QE3 Bets, IMF Outlook Downgrade

Commodities May Weaken on Fading QE3 Bets, IMF Outlook Downgrade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Commodities May Extend Losses as US Economic Data Dents QE3 Bets
  • Citigroup Earnings Sought to Gauge Market-Wide Impact of Euro Crisis
  • IMF Outlook Update May Hurt Risk Appetite on US Growth Downgrade

Commodity prices are correcting lower in early European trade after Friday’s sharp rebound in risk appetite. Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices followed share prices higher while gold and silver found a de-facto boost as the safe-haven US Dollar retraced downward.

A quiet economic calendar in Europe turns traders’ attention to the US docket. Expectations call for narrow improvement in the Empire Manufacturing gauge – the first of July’s regional activity surveys to hit the tape – while Retail Sales snap a two-month losing streak to post a narrow gain in June.

The outcomes may reinforce the recent stabilization in US economic data (at least relative to expectations), which may counter-intuitively weigh on sentiment, and by extension on commodity prices, via a downgrade to Fed QE3 hopes. Significant follow-though from price action seems unlikely however ahead of Chairman Bernanke’s Congressional testimony later in the week.

On the earnings front, second-quarter results from Citigroup Inc take top billing today. Traders will be most interested in the bank’s guidance vis-à-vis the Eurozone debt crisis, looking for evidence on the impact of sovereign and bank solvency jitters in the on market-wide financial conditions.

The International Monetary Fund is also due to publish an updated set of global growth expectations. IMF MD Christine Lagarde has already suggested a downgrade to worldwide performance is to be unveiled. Markets will be particularly interested in the regional breakdown. A recession in Europe and slowdown in Asia have been expected for some time, but a material downgrade to North American performance may stoke risk aversion.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $87.10 // +1.02 // +1.18%

Prices are consolidating above support at 84.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term resistance is at 88.40, the 38.2% level, with a break above that exposing the 90.00 figure. Alternatively, a breach of support targets the 81.19-52 area marked by the June 4 low and the 14.6% retracement.

Commodities_May_Weaken_on_Fading_QE3_Bets_IMF_Outlook_Downgrade_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities May Weaken on Fading QE3 Bets, IMF Outlook Downgrade

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1589.68 // +17.73 // +1.13%

Prices broke back above 1575.81, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 23.6% level sitting squarely at the 1600/oz figure once again. A falling trend line set from late March, now at 1612.47, compounds resistance. A break above the latter boundary initially exposes the July 3 high at 1624.81. The 1575.81 level has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back below that targeting the 50% Fib at 1555.83.

Commodities_May_Weaken_on_Fading_QE3_Bets_IMF_Outlook_Downgrade_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities May Weaken on Fading QE3 Bets, IMF Outlook Downgrade

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.33 // +0.16 // +0.59%

Prices continue to tread water above support is at 26.75. A break below that exposes the multi-month triple bottom at 26.05. Trend line resistance is now at 27.79, with a breach above that exposing the underside of a previously broken Flag formation (currently at 28.78).

Commodities_May_Weaken_on_Fading_QE3_Bets_IMF_Outlook_Downgrade_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities May Weaken on Fading QE3 Bets, IMF Outlook Downgrade

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.504 // +0.088 // +2.58%

Prices took out resistance at 3.445, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing upside barriers at 3.535 and 3.618. The 3.445 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% Fib at 3.378.

Commodities_May_Weaken_on_Fading_QE3_Bets_IMF_Outlook_Downgrade_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities May Weaken on Fading QE3 Bets, IMF Outlook Downgrade

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES