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Crude Oil Aims to Follow Stocks Higher, Gold at Risk on US Data

Crude Oil Aims to Follow Stocks Higher, Gold at Risk on US Data

2012-06-27 11:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

Growth-geared commodities are yielding mixed results ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. Copper is on the upswing, following European shares higher amid hopes that China will introduce additional stimulus measures. The China Securities Journal reported overnight that the country may introduce “more proactive” measures to stoke growth in the world’s second-largest economy, feeding a recovery in risk appetite.Crude oil is flat as traders await official DOE inventory figures. S&P 500 stock index futures point cautiously higher however, hinting the stocks-linked WTI contract may have scope to catch up higher.

Optimism may get a bit of an added boost as the day’s batch of US economic data comes across the wires. Durable Goods Orders and Pending Homes Sales figures are on tap, with modest improvements expected on both fronts. Orders are forecast to rise 0.5 percent in May, marking the largest increase in three months. Home Sales are tipped to 1.5 percent in the same period after a sharp 5.5 percent drop in April. The outcomes may weigh on gold and silver however as QE3 expectations ebb.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $79.36 // +0.15 // +0.19%

Prices completed a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 77.34, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance lines up at 81.07, the 23.6% Fib, with a break higher exposing the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure. Alternatively, a push through support exposes the 50% Fib at 74.35.

Crude_Oil_Aims_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_Gold_at_Risk_on_US_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Aims to Follow Stocks Higher, Gold at Risk on US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1572.93 // -11.56 // -0.73%

Prices turned lower from resistance at 1585.42, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, to retest rising trend line support set from the mid-May swing low. This barrier is reinforced by the 50% at 1568.46. A break lower here exposes the 61.8% level at 1551.50. Alternatively, a push above resistance on a daily closing basis targets the 1600/oz figure.

Crude_Oil_Aims_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_Gold_at_Risk_on_US_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Aims to Follow Stocks Higher, Gold at Risk on US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.11 // -0.41 // -1.50%

Prices continue to test support at 26.75, the May 16 low, with resistance established at the formerly broken Flag chart formation that previously acted as support (now at 27.96). A break higher initially targets 28.16. Alternatively, a reversal back through 26.75 exposes the major Triple Bottom at 26.05.

Crude_Oil_Aims_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_Gold_at_Risk_on_US_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil Aims to Follow Stocks Higher, Gold at Risk on US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.314 // -0.002 // -0.06%

Prices are testing support at 3.296, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward exposes Triple Bottom support at 3.250. Near-term resistance stands at 3.384, the 23.6% Fib retracement.

Crude_Oil_Aims_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_Gold_at_Risk_on_US_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil Aims to Follow Stocks Higher, Gold at Risk on US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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