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Commodities Rise on Spain Bank Bailout But Gains May Prove Fleeting

Commodities Rise on Spain Bank Bailout But Gains May Prove Fleeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

Commodity prices are on the upswing to start the trading week amid a broad-based recovery in risk appetite after Spain successfully lobbied for a €100 billion EU aid package to recapitalize its banking sector over the weekend. Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper are following stocks higher while gold and silver are finding de-facto support as the chipper mood saps safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

The bailout announcement downgrades the possibility of a credit squeeze in the event that a Spanish lender folded. The apparent absence of added austerity measures attached to the terms of the bailout are reinforcing the risk-on mood, hinting it will not compound Spain’s already deep recession and contribute to Eurozone-linked headwinds battering global output at large.

A supportive set of Chinese Trade Balance figures likewise amplified chipper sentiment trends, showing exports grew at the fastest pace in three months. The outcome hinted that the world’s second-largest economy and its top exporter may not be facing as deep of a demand slump as has been feared at the hands of the Eurozone recession.

Looking ahead, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher, pointing to more of the same as Wall Street comes online. Investor’s rosy disposition may be short-lived however as markets look ahead to Greece’s second attempt at a general election on June 17, with uncertainty about the outcome threatening to sink risky assets anew as the week progresses.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $84.10 // -0.72 // -0.85%

Prices are consolidating between the June 7 high at 87.00 and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 83.30. A break above resistance exposes the 90.00 figure. Alternatively, a push through support targets the 23.6% Fib at 81.07.

Commodities_Rise_on_Spain_Bank_Bailout_But_Gains_May_Prove_Fleeting_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Rise on Spain Bank Bailout But Gains May Prove Fleeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1594.78 // +4.05 // +0.25%

Prices are probing above resistance at 1599.17, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, after carving out a Hammer candlestick above support at 1582.10 marked by the 38.2% level. A break higher sees the next significant barrier at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib.

Commodities_Rise_on_Spain_Bank_Bailout_But_Gains_May_Prove_Fleeting_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Rise on Spain Bank Bailout But Gains May Prove Fleeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.50 // -0.10 // -0.36%

Prices are testing above resistance at 28.70, with a break higher exposing 29.71. The overall structure appears to be showing a Flag chart formation, a setup indicative of bearish continuation. Confirmation is required on a daily close below the pattern’s bottom – now at 28.04 – which would expose 27.06 as the next downside objective.

Commodities_Rise_on_Spain_Bank_Bailout_But_Gains_May_Prove_Fleeting_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Rise on Spain Bank Bailout But Gains May Prove Fleeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.286 // -0.084 // -2.49%

Prices are once again testing resistance at the top of a falling channel set from the May 1 swing high (now at 3.350), with a break higher initially exposing the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 3.426. Double bottom support lines up at 3.250, with a break below that targeting the 123.6% Fib extension at 3.080.

Commodities_Rise_on_Spain_Bank_Bailout_But_Gains_May_Prove_Fleeting_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Rise on Spain Bank Bailout But Gains May Prove Fleeting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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