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Commodities Sold as UK Markets Reopen, Greek Coaltion Talks Stumble

Commodities Sold as UK Markets Reopen, Greek Coaltion Talks Stumble

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

Commodities are moving lower in early European trade as risk aversion grips financial markets once again, weighing on growth-geared crude oil and copper prices and driving safe-haven flows into the US Dollar, thereby applying de-facto downward pressure to gold and silver. The rout follows news that Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece’s center-right New Democracy (ND) party, failed to cajole enough support to form a coalition government following the weekend’s general election.

The task now falls on Alexis Tsipras, the head of the Syriza party that ran on a platform of renegotiation Greece’s obligations under the EU/IMF bailout program. Investors are concerned that the elevation of Tsipras will threaten to unravel hard-fought efforts to keep Greece within the Eurozone and mark the first forcible exit a country from the currency bloc, a prospect with as-yet unpredictable implications. The return of UK markets after yesterday’s absence for a bank holiday is likely compounding the dour mood as London’s traders get their chance to price in the weekend’s worrying news-flow.

Looking ahead, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading sharply lower, hinting that current trends are poised to continue as Wall Street comes online. The US economic calendar offers a lackluster helping of low-tier economic indicators, suggesting little stands to derail current momentum. API will also release the preliminary set of weekly crude inventory figures.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $97.94 // -0.55 // -0.56%

The selloff marked by a Harami candlestick pattern identified last week found interim support in the 95.78-96.56 area marked by a horizontal barrier in play since early November 2011 as well as the 100% Fibonacci expansion. A hammer candlestick hints that a bounce may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 98.89, the 76.4% expansion, with a break above that exposing the 61.8% level at 100.33. Alternatively, a push through support targets 92.51.

Commodities_Sold_as_UK_Markets_Return_Greek_Coaltion_Talks_Stumble_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Sold as UK Markets Reopen, Greek Coaltion Talks Stumble

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1638.55 // -3.67 // -0.22%

Prices are testing support in the 1630.00-1637.73 area marked by the bottom of a Triangle chart formation carved out since late March and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. The Triangle setup is typically indicative of continuation, which in this case carries bearish implications. A break through support initially exposes the 38.2% expansion at 1611.79. Triangle top resistance is now at 1661.75.

Commodities_Sold_as_UK_Markets_Return_Greek_Coaltion_Talks_Stumble_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Sold as UK Markets Reopen, Greek Coaltion Talks Stumble

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $30.06 // -0.31 // -1.02%

Prices are testing below support at 29.71, with a break lower exposing the bottom of a falling channel established since early Mach now at 29.04. Near-term resistance lines up in the 31.20-31.36 area, marked by the channel top and a horizontal former support level now recast as an upside barrier.

Commodities_Sold_as_UK_Markets_Return_Greek_Coaltion_Talks_Stumble_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Sold as UK Markets Reopen, Greek Coaltion Talks Stumble

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.724 // +0.052 // +1.40%

Prices are testing through support at 3.713, with a break lower exposing a rising trend line set from early October now at 3.638. Initial resistance is found at a shorter-term rising trend line that formerly acted as support set from mid-March, now at 3.864.

Commodities_Sold_as_UK_Markets_Return_Greek_Coaltion_Talks_Stumble_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Sold as UK Markets Reopen, Greek Coaltion Talks Stumble

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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