We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
  • The record-breaking NFPs increase behind us and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday sets the tone for my trading video: 'Dow Soars Above 200-Day Average on NFPs, Will the #Fed Keep the Dollar Sliding' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/06/06/Dow-Soars-Above-200-Day-Average-on-NFPs-Will-the-Fed-Keep-the-Dollar-Sliding.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/kquvec5HVc
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/OsaphmqEmu
Gold, Crude Oil to Judge ISM and Fed Comments in Terms of QE3 Bets

Gold, Crude Oil to Judge ISM and Fed Comments in Terms of QE3 Bets

2012-05-01 09:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper to Follow Stocks as ISM Data, Fed-speak Shape Risk Trends
  • Gold and Silver Reflect Inflation-Hedge Demand as QE3 Expectations Evolve

Commodities look to the US economic calendar for direction, with the spotlight on the US ISM Manufacturing gauge. Forecasts call for a mild slowdown in April that keeps the modest uptrend carved out from July of last year intact (a print below 52.6 would be needed to snap the trend, and a 53.0 result is expected).

With the likelihood of Fed QE3 still broadly in focus across financial markets, a soft reading may counter-intuitively boost risk appetite on rising stimulus hopes. Crude oil and copper prices remain closely correlated with the S&P 500 and so would be expected to follow shares higher in this scenario while gold and silver would find support on rising US Dollar dilution concerns.

Investors are likely to evaluate a busy docket of Fed officials’ commentary along the same lines. Scheduled remarks from regional branch Presidents Kocherlakota, Williams, Evans, Lockhart and Plosser are due to cross the wires. The preliminary set of weekly oil inventories figures from API rounds out the day’s event risk.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $104.87 // -0.06 // -0.06%

Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 104.90, a former support level, to hint that a pullback may be ahead. A turn lower from here sees initial support at 102.20. Alternatively, a breakout higher targets trend line resistance now at 105.91.

Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Judge_ISM_and_Fed_Comments_in_Terms_of_QE3_Bets_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Judge ISM and Fed Comments in Terms of QE3 Bets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1664.75 // +2.00 // +0.12%

Prices took out the top of a falling channel set from early March, with the bulls now aiming to challenge resistance at 1680.00 and 1696.88 marked by key swing highs set on April 12 and March 27. The channel top, now at 1656.74, has been recast as near-term support.

Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Judge_ISM_and_Fed_Comments_in_Terms_of_QE3_Bets_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Judge ISM and Fed Comments in Terms of QE3 Bets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.02 // -0.24 // -0.78%

Prices are testing resistance at 31.36, with a break higher exposing the top of a falling channel set from early March (now at 31.96). Near-term channel bottom support is now at 29.64.

Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Judge_ISM_and_Fed_Comments_in_Terms_of_QE3_Bets_body_Picture_5.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Judge ISM and Fed Comments in Terms of QE3 Bets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.830 // +0.004 // +0.10%

Prices are retesting above former support at a rising trend line set from mid-February, with a break higher exposing the next upside barrier just below the 4.000 figure in the 3.933-3.988 area. For now, initial support lines up at 3.713.

Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Judge_ISM_and_Fed_Comments_in_Terms_of_QE3_Bets_body_Picture_6.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Judge ISM and Fed Comments in Terms of QE3 Bets

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.