News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here:
  • 🇮🇹 Balance of Trade (NOV) Actual: €6.766B Previous: €7.565B
  • IEA lowers forecast for global oil demand by 600kbpd for Q1 21 and 300kbpd for whole of 21
  • Another strong move in the Ether (ETH)/Bitcoin (BTC) spread...#eth #btc #cryptocurrency @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom
  • Germany to extend lockdown measures until Feb 15th - RTRS
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 64.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Balance of Trade (NOV) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €7.565B
  • 🇭🇰 Unemployment Rate (DEC) Actual: 6.6% Previous: 6.3%
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.26% Oil - US Crude: 0.72% Gold: 0.34% View the performance of all markets via
  • The US Dollar may be finding a turning point against ASEAN currencies as smaller fiscal stimulus bets, soft earnings risk and Covid cases translate into some capital flight from equities. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper to Rise if Soft US Economic Data Reinforces QE3 Hopes
  • Gold and Silver Outlook Hinges on Inflation Hedge Demand, US Dollar

Last week, commodities seized on comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying policymakers were “prepared to do more” to help the economy if growth faltered, singling out additional quantitative easing (QE) as still “on the table”. The initial reaction – a rebound in risk appetite and selloff in the US Dollar – reflected traders’ belief that the statement marked an increase in the likelihood of QE3. The response ignored the rest of Bernanke’s statement however, where he warned that it would be “very reckless” to allow higher inflation for the sake of reducing unemployment against a backdrop of an upgraded inflation expectations on the rate-setting FOMC committee.

From here, traders look to a busy week of US data releases to continue shaping QE3 expectations, with soft readings likely to reinforce bets on another round of stimulus while upside surprises force a reconsideration of what Ben Bernanke was alluding to. Personal Income and Spending figures enter the spotlight today, with the latter reading of particular interest as forecasts point to moderation in March following a sharp jump in the preceding month. Chicago PMI and the Dallas Manufacturing Activity gauge are likewise on tap, with moderation expected on both fronts.

Soft readings are likely to serve as fodder for QE speculation and stand to boost risk-sensitive crude oil and copper prices. Needless to say, gold and silver are likewise primed to advance in such a scenario on rising store-of-value demand. Positive surprises will probably produce the opposite effect, denting stimulus hopes and sending the US Dollar higher to the detriment of most of the commodities space.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $104.93 // +0.38 // +0.36%

Prices took out the first layer of falling trend line resistance to challenge 104.90, a former support level. A break above this boundary targets another falling trend line at 106.01. Near-term support stands at 102.10.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1662.75 // +5.32 // +0.32%

Prices are testing the top of a falling channel set from early March now at 1661.75, with a break higher exposing 1680.35. Support lines up at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Absent a daily close above the channel top, the overall trend remains bearish.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.27 // +0.18 // +0.56%

Prices followed a Hammer candlestick above support at 30.23 with a break through nearby resistance at 31.11, with the bulls now aiming to challenge a falling trend line set from early March (currently at 31.66). A push above this exposes 32.93. Alternatively, a turn lower back through 31.11 exposes the 30.23.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.826 // +0.052 // +1.38%

Prices are retesting above former support at a rising trend line set from mid-February, with a break higher exposing the next upside barrier just below the 4.000 figure in the 3.933-3.988 area. For now, initial support lines up at 3.713.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.