News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.58%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 73.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/o0D0Ngucod
  • USD/JPY attempts to retrace the decline following the semi-annual testimony with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell amid a rebound in longer-dated US Treasury yields. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/Uos1L1Z4wG https://t.co/pZhubVlhjs
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.02% Gold: -0.15% Silver: -0.83% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4gIoNck16b
  • The US Dollar is broadly stronger on the session with the latest flash PMI report from @IHSMarkit underscoring inflation pressures ahead of next week's Fed announcement. $DXY facing psychological resistance at the 93.00-handle, though. Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/23/us-dollar-firms-as-pmi-data-echoes-inflation-risk-cue-the-fed.html https://t.co/SzMzzxoYzN
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/RykiRciAsZ
  • ECB's Weidmann: - New ECB goal does not mean there will be markedly higher inflation
  • ECB's Weidmann: - I expect inflation rates in Germany to rise to 5% by the end of 2021 - Governing council believes that expansive monetary policy is acceptable at the moment
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.74% Wall Street: 0.51% Germany 30: -0.03% France 40: -0.08% FTSE 100: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/iXJHlexTlA
  • USD/MXN trades directionless, oscillating between small gains and losses, near the 20.15 area. Get your $USDMXN market update from @DColmanFX here:https://t.co/FFr3rlGh6n https://t.co/7tniccl9S8
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LZfExkLfjB
Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper to Rise if Soft US Economic Data Reinforces QE3 Hopes
  • Gold and Silver Outlook Hinges on Inflation Hedge Demand, US Dollar

Last week, commodities seized on comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying policymakers were “prepared to do more” to help the economy if growth faltered, singling out additional quantitative easing (QE) as still “on the table”. The initial reaction – a rebound in risk appetite and selloff in the US Dollar – reflected traders’ belief that the statement marked an increase in the likelihood of QE3. The response ignored the rest of Bernanke’s statement however, where he warned that it would be “very reckless” to allow higher inflation for the sake of reducing unemployment against a backdrop of an upgraded inflation expectations on the rate-setting FOMC committee.

From here, traders look to a busy week of US data releases to continue shaping QE3 expectations, with soft readings likely to reinforce bets on another round of stimulus while upside surprises force a reconsideration of what Ben Bernanke was alluding to. Personal Income and Spending figures enter the spotlight today, with the latter reading of particular interest as forecasts point to moderation in March following a sharp jump in the preceding month. Chicago PMI and the Dallas Manufacturing Activity gauge are likewise on tap, with moderation expected on both fronts.

Soft readings are likely to serve as fodder for QE speculation and stand to boost risk-sensitive crude oil and copper prices. Needless to say, gold and silver are likewise primed to advance in such a scenario on rising store-of-value demand. Positive surprises will probably produce the opposite effect, denting stimulus hopes and sending the US Dollar higher to the detriment of most of the commodities space.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $104.93 // +0.38 // +0.36%

Prices took out the first layer of falling trend line resistance to challenge 104.90, a former support level. A break above this boundary targets another falling trend line at 106.01. Near-term support stands at 102.10.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1662.75 // +5.32 // +0.32%

Prices are testing the top of a falling channel set from early March now at 1661.75, with a break higher exposing 1680.35. Support lines up at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Absent a daily close above the channel top, the overall trend remains bearish.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.27 // +0.18 // +0.56%

Prices followed a Hammer candlestick above support at 30.23 with a break through nearby resistance at 31.11, with the bulls now aiming to challenge a falling trend line set from early March (currently at 31.66). A push above this exposes 32.93. Alternatively, a turn lower back through 31.11 exposes the 30.23.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.826 // +0.052 // +1.38%

Prices are retesting above former support at a rising trend line set from mid-February, with a break higher exposing the next upside barrier just below the 4.000 figure in the 3.933-3.988 area. For now, initial support lines up at 3.713.

Commodities_Look_to_US_Data_for_Direction_on_Evolving_QE3_Hopes_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Look to US Data for Direction on Evolving QE3 Hopes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES