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Commodities Sink as Global Slowdown Fears Swell, US Dollar Rallies

Commodities Sink as Global Slowdown Fears Swell, US Dollar Rallies

2012-04-23 11:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

Commodity prices are on the defensive as risk aversion grips financial markets after China’s manufacturing sector shrank for the third consecutive month while the preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures printed sharply below expectations, rekindling global growth fears. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following shares lower while gold and silver are facing de-facto selling pressure as the risk-averse mood drives haven demand for the US Dollar. S&P 500 stock index futures are down over a full percentage point ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street – pointing to more of the same ahead – and an empty economic calendar seemingly assures no major pitfalls to derail momentum.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $102.27 // -0.40 // -0.39%

Prices remain wedged between resistance at 104.90 and a rising trend line support set from mid-December, with a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. A break above 104.90 exposes falling trend line barriers at 105.21 and 106.42. Support is now at 101.58.

Commodities_Sink_as_Global_Slodown_Fears_Swell_US_Dollar_Rallies_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Sink as Global Slowdown Fears Swell, US Dollar Rallies

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1642.93 // +0.00 // +0.00%

Prices are testing below support at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from early March. A break lower exposes the 38.2% level at 1612.02. Trend line resistance is now at 1665.57.

Commodities_Sink_as_Global_Slodown_Fears_Swell_US_Dollar_Rallies_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Sink as Global Slowdown Fears Swell, US Dollar Rallies

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.70 // -0.08 // -0.24%

Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at 32.93, the former neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top carved out between late January and mid-March, and horizontal support at 31.04. A break blower exposes the first downside barrier at 29.79. The H&S setup broadly implies a measured downside target at 26.84.

Commodities_Sink_as_Global_Slodown_Fears_Swell_US_Dollar_Rallies_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Sink as Global Slowdown Fears Swell, US Dollar Rallies

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.698 // +0.070 // +1.93%

Prices are testing through rising trend line support set from early October, a barrier reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 3.606. A break downward exposes the 61.8% level at 3.516. Near-term resistance lines up at 3.696, the 38.2% Fib.

Commodities_Sink_as_Global_Slodown_Fears_Swell_US_Dollar_Rallies_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Sink as Global Slowdown Fears Swell, US Dollar Rallies

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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