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Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Earnings Calendar for Direction Cues

Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Earnings Calendar for Direction Cues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

Commodity prices are little changed in early European trade, reflecting directionless risk sentiment trends projected via flat S&P 500 stock index futures. A quiet US economic calendar keeps the focus on the earnings calendar, with cycle-sensitive names including Halliburton and Dover as well consumption-trend proxies like Yum! Brands and American Express on tap.

So far, the twenty-nine S&P 500 companies to report first-quarter outcomes have produced mixed results: earnings growth slumped 0.5 percent on average, but this marked a 4.6 percent outperformance relative to expectations. Broadly speaking, traders are looking to the reports for answers to a familiar question: can a stronger recovery in the US offset a recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China this year?

Crude oil and copper remain closely correlated with the S&P 500, hinting shares’ response to today’s earnings reports will see direct reflection in prices for the growth-driven commodities. Meanwhile, gold and silver continue to look to the US Dollar for direction cues. For its part, the greenback, continues to show a meaningful inverse relationship with share prices, hinting a sentiment-supportive set of reports is likely to weigh on the benchmark currency while bolstering precious metals (and vice-versa).

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $104.20 // +1.27 // +1.23%

Prices are testing resistance at 104.90 after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick above rising trend line support set from mid-December. A break above this level exposes falling trend line barriers at 105.61 and 106.70. Support is now at 101.22.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_US_Earnings_Calendar_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Earnings Calendar for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1649.57 // -2.30 // -0.14%

Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from early March. Initial support has been found at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this exposes the 38.2% level at 1612.02. Trend line resistance is now at 1670.97.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_US_Earnings_Calendar_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Earnings Calendar for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.68 // +0.18 // +0.57%

Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at 32.93, the former neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top carved out between late January and mid-March, and horizontal support at 31.04. A break blower exposes the first downside barrier at 29.79. The H&S setup broadly implies a measured downside target at 26.84.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_US_Earnings_Calendar_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Earnings Calendar for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.648 // +0.020 // +0.55%

Prices put in two back-to-back Hammer candlesticks above rising trend line support set from early October, hinting a move higher may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 3.716, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 3.761. Trend line support is now at 3.621.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_US_Earnings_Calendar_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Earnings Calendar for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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