News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Senator McConnell says stimulus to be voted on this Tuesday and Wednesday - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.90% Gold: 0.23% Oil - US Crude: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zaH4DP0nFZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.05%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 69.60%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/b7OFCOlJkt
  • After recovering from March 2020 lows, price action favored the bulls, until reaching a wall of resistance on 1 September at the psychological level of 1.2000. Get your $EURUSD market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/PxcRm33ooH https://t.co/S7thoATfKw
  • US Equity Update (Monday Close): $DJI -1.43% $SPX -1.63% $NDX -1.84% $RUT -1.23% $VIX +6.24%
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: 0.03% France 40: -0.50% FTSE 100: -0.58% Germany 30: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/N8tSHADd40
  • Silver continues to grind higher and is now making a breakthrough a short-term resistance trendline started at the beginning of September. Get your $XAG market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/ImLodz3YT0 https://t.co/De0mXd0afk
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Harker Speech due at 19:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-19
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.18% Gold: 0.33% Oil - US Crude: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/1xOhZKKHS5
  • #Sterling Outlook: #Pound Rebound Remains Precarious- $GBPUSD Levels - https://t.co/Jn06MasoAG https://t.co/6soUcJMuew
Oil and Gold Sold Before US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories Data

Oil and Gold Sold Before US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories Data

2012-03-28 10:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil and Copper Fall, Slowing Chinese Demand Outlook Likely Driver
  • Gold and Silver Sold Before US Durable Goods Data on Waning QE3 Bets

Commodity prices are looking to the US Durable Goods Orders report for near-term direction cues. Expectations point to an increase of 3 percent in February after a sharp 3.7 percent in the previous month. Gold and silver are tracking lower ahead of the outcome as a pickup in US economic data dents expectations for an expansion of Federal Reserve stimulus efforts, weighing against demand for precious metals as store-of-value hedge.

Curiously, the typically growth-sensitive crude oil and copper are tracking lower before the outcome. Lackluster performance seems all the more surprising considering S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher before the opening bell on Wall Street, suggesting risk appetite is well-supported.

Part of the explanation may be in reports emerging out of Chinese state-run media overnight that suggested Beijing would strengthen inflation-fighting measures, denting hopes that the government would relax lending restrictions as the economy slows. This pushed Asian shares sharply lower and seems likely to have raised crude oil and copper demand fears considering China is a leading importer of both commodities.

In the case of the WTI contract, expectations for a sharp rise in weekly inventories may also be playing a role in pulling prices lower. The DOE is forecast to report that stockpiles rose by 2.55 million barrels last week, marking the largest increase in a month. Preliminary inventory numbers from API released yesterday pointed to a much larger build of over 3.60 million barrels.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $107.33 // +0.30 // +0.28%

Prices appear to be carving out a descending Triangle chart pattern. The setup generally argues in favor of a turn lower but confirmation is needed on a clear break of support at 104.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Near-term falling trend line resistance lines up at 107.95.

Oil_Gold_Prices_Lower_Before_US_Durable_Goods_Crude_Inventories_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Oil and Gold Sold Before US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1680.77 // -9.30 // -0.55%

Prices pulled back from resistance at 1691.06, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with sellers facing initial support at 1666.37. A break below this barrier exposes 1641.62. Alternatively, a reversal higher through near-term resistance targets the 38.2% expansion at 1730.16.

Oil_Gold_Prices_Lower_Before_US_Durable_Goods_Crude_Inventories_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Oil and Gold Sold Before US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $32.59 // -0.23 // -0.70%

Prices are testing support-turned-resistance at 32.97, the 38.2%Fibonacci retracement level. A Shooting Star candlestick hints a pullback is ahead. Near-term support lines up at 31.67, the 50% Fib. Alternatively, a break higher would invalidate a Head and Shoulders top carved out between late January and mid-March to expose the 23.6% level at 37.59.

Oil_Gold_Prices_Lower_Before_US_Durable_Goods_Crude_Inventories_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Oil and Gold Sold Before US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.880 // -0.008 // -0.21%

Prices appear to be forming a Triangle chart pattern above support at 3.696, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The setup warns of bullish continuation ahead, although confirmation is needed on a daily close above the Triangle’s top (now at 3.900). Near-term support lines up at 3.764, the formation’s lower boundary.

Oil_Gold_Prices_Lower_Before_US_Durable_Goods_Crude_Inventories_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Oil and Gold Sold Before US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES