News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/0rNbbrd58e
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/NGRTSfceOW https://t.co/QkSUORIQE2
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper Aim Higher Before US New Home Sales Report
  • Gold and Silver to Fall if QE3 Expectations Continue to Dissipate
  • Fate of Italian Labor Reforms May Shape Risk Sentiment Trends

Commodity prices are looking to the US New Home Sales report for direction. Expectations call for a print at 325,000 in February, marking the strongest result in 14 months. A print in line with forecasts is likely to boost sentiment-sensitive crude oil and copper prices on hopes that a firming US recovery will help offset headwinds from a recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China slated for this year.

By contrast, gold and silver may decline as the outcome weights further on QE3 expectations while boosting the US Dollar and thereby applying de-facto pressure to anti-fiat assets. The greenback has notably demonstrated an ability to rise on supportive domestic economic news over recently as Federal Reserve officials began to gradually back away from ultra-dovish rhetoric.

Markets are also watching for the outcome of an Italian cabinet meeting where Prime Minister Mario Monti is pushing for a controversial labor reform package. The scheme is part of an Italian push to boost long-term economic growth in the hope that laying the foundation for key structural reforms now will encourage confidence and reduce borrowing costs, keeping sovereign solvency fears at bay.

Of the so-called “PIIGS” countries at the heart of the Eurozone debt crisis, Italy represents the greatest remaining threat to the region. The country represents the world’s third-largest bond market with close to €3 trillion in outstanding government paper, meaning a blow-up there is likely to have dire implications well beyond the borders of the single currency bloc.

The Prime Minister faces an uphill battle as labor unions mount fierce opposition to the reforms, disputing a component of the plan that would make it easier for employers to fire workers. A sentiment-supportive outcome likely to boost commodity prices will see the Monti administration press forward with its proposals. A watered-down package may rekindle risk aversion however amid renewed fears about Italy’s fiscal outlook.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $105.35 // -1.92 // -1.79%

Prices continued to retest resistance-turned-support at the top of a recently broken Falling Wedge top having put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 108.32. It remains unclear whether the recent pullback represents a true reversal or merely a correction. A break of the 38.2% Fib at 104.75 would confirm the bearish scenario. Initial resistance now stands at 106.96, the 23.6% retracement.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1645.90 // -4.53 // -0.27%

Prices continue to consolidate in a familiar range between resistance in the 1666.37-1677.05 area and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1638.49. A break higher exposes a familiar pivot at 1718.05 while a close below support clears the way for a move to the 50% expansion at 1590.82.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.58 // -0.58 // -1.80%

Prices took out support at 31.67, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 61.8% level at 30.37. The 50% Fib has been recast as immediate resistance. Longer term, a confirmed Head and Shoulders top chart pattern implies a measured downside objective at 26.84, which closely coincides with the late December bottom.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.766 // -0.080 // -2.08%

Prices broke below support at 3.808, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 3.696-3.713 area anew. The 23.6% level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES