News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • $GBPUSD rejected at 1.4000, pull back on BoE price trying to hold support in the 's2' zone
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • $EURGBP post BoE:
  • $GBPUSD stabilising after dip on BoE:
  • So in summary BoE marginally more dovish than expected, and that key word "transitory" is still there. "The Committee’s expectation is that the direct impact of rises in commodity prices on CPI inflation will be transitory."
  • BoE says "CPI inflation is expected to pick up further above the target, owing primarily to developments in energy and other commodity prices, and is likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period."
  • BoE - Staff upwardly revised UK Q2 GDP by 1.5% from May Report BoE - Inflation likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period. GBP/USD falls to day's low of 1.3912 #boe #gbpusd @DailyFXTeam
  • BoE says - bank staff revise up their expectations for UK GDP in Q2 by 1.5% since May report - Inflation likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period
  • Initial reaction in $GBPUSD to Bank of England negative
Crude Oil to Rise as Gold Declines on Pickup in US Existing Home Sales

Crude Oil to Rise as Gold Declines on Pickup in US Existing Home Sales

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper Higher Ahead of US Existing Home Sales Report
  • Gold and Silver at Risk as US Data Weighs on QE3 Bets, Boosts Dollar

Commodity prices are showing mixed results in European trade but S&P 500 index futures point firmly higher, hinting risk appetite is likely to be well-supported heading into the afternoon as Wall Street comes online. Optimism seems to reflect hopeful expectations ahead of US Existing Home Sales figures, where forecasts point to the highest reading in 22 months at 4.61 million.

With the Eurozone widely expected to be in recession already and worries about a slowdown in China at the forefront again after the country raised fuel prices yesterday, the US stands as the sole remaining major engine of global output expected to see a pickup in performance this year. This means US economic data has taken on addedmarket-wide significance.

A strong print is likely to prove supportive for growth-sensitive copper and crude oil prices, although the WTI contract will also have to contend with the official DOE set of weekly inventory figures. Yesterday’s preliminary API report showed a drop in stockpiles, but investors overlooked it amid broad-based risk aversion. A similar outcome this time around may have more market-moving potential considering forecasts call for an increase.

Importantly, housing data carries a degree of added significance considering the depressed property market is at the top of the Fed’s list of concerns (along with unemployment, which has shown notable improvement lately). This suggests stronger outcomes here likely to encourage policymakers as they begin to tip-toe away from ultra-dovish territory.

As we observed last week, this new-found responsiveness of Fed policy to the apparently firming recovery has produced an environment where the heretofore rigidly safe-haven US Dollar is able to rise along with share prices. This coupled with reduced QE3 expectations implicit in strengthening economic news is likely to weigh on gold and silver prices.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $108.09 // +1.03 // +0.96%

Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick below resistance at 108.32, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. It is unclear at this point whether the move markets a bearish reversal or merely a correction to retest recently broken Falling Wedge top resistance. A break of the next layer of support at 104.75 marked by the 38.2% Fib would act as confirmation.

Crude_Oil_to_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_on_Pickup_in_US_Existing_Home_Sales_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil to Rise as Gold Declines on Pickup in US Existing Home Sales

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1664.52 // +4.52 // +0.27%

Prices continue to carve out a Falling Wedge bullish reversal chart formation, with a Harami candlestick pattern above support at 1638.84 reinforcing the likelihood of a bounce. Initial resistance lines up in the 1666.37-1677.05 area, with a break above that validating the Wedge setup and exposing resistance barriers at the 1700/oz figure as well as 1718.05.

Crude_Oil_to_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_on_Pickup_in_US_Existing_Home_Sales_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil to Rise as Gold Declines on Pickup in US Existing Home Sales

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $32.95 // +0.42 // +1.30%

Prices continue to stall having completed a Head and Shoulders top chart pattern with a break below the formation’s neckline at 32.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Initial support remains at 31.67, the 50% Fib, with a break lower exposing the 61.8% retracement at 30.37. The H&S setup implies a measured downside objective at 26.84, which closely coincides with the late December bottom. The 38.2% level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Crude_Oil_to_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_on_Pickup_in_US_Existing_Home_Sales_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil to Rise as Gold Declines on Pickup in US Existing Home Sales

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.910 // +0.032 // +0.83%

Prices continue to consolidate below falling trend line resistance connecting major highs since early February. Initial support lines up at 3.808, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 3.696-3.713 area anew. Trend line resistance is now at 3.913, with a break above exposing 3.988.

Crude_Oil_to_Rise_as_Gold_Declines_on_Pickup_in_US_Existing_Home_Sales_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil to Rise as Gold Declines on Pickup in US Existing Home Sales

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.