News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold prices declined in the aftermath of bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced. $XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #Elections2020. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection -
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
Crude Oil, Gold Look to FOMC Outcome for Direction Cues

Crude Oil, Gold Look to FOMC Outcome for Direction Cues

2012-03-13 09:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement as global growth fears overtake the spotlight with Greece-linked issues finally fading out of focus. If the rate-setting FOMC committee continues to project the neutral-leaning tone consistent with recent commentary that proved so market-moving after Ben Bernanke’s Congressional testimony last month, the outcome is likely to prove negative for risk appetite.

The most significant headwind facing global economic growth this year is the widely expected recession in the Eurozone. With China likely to be hobbled by the downturn considering the currency bloc is its largest export market, the US is left as the last of the three major engines driving global output to serve as an offsetting force. An FOMC outing that positively acknowledges the economy's progress is likely to weigh on QE3 expectations, which in this context bodes ill for risky assets in that a US economy primed with stimulus is likely to be a more potent counterweigh to the slump in Europe than otherwise.

Such an outcome is likely to be directly negative for growth-sensitive crude oil and copper prices, where global business cycle considerations play directly into the outlook for demand. As for gold and silver, the response will prove negative as well, but for different reasons. On one hand, a diminished probability of QE3 will weigh on demand for precious metals as a store-of-value hedge against further dilution of fiat currency. On the other, the return of risk aversion will drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, amounting to de-facto downward pressure. Needless to say, a relatively dovish Fed that reboots speculation about an expansion of asset purchases is likely to produce the precise opposite of these dynamics.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $106.34 // -1.06 // -0.99%

Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern following a retest of support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from the February 2 low and broke below 106.50, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Sellers now target the 38.2% Fib at 104.38. Trend line resistance is at 109.33.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_FOMC_Outcome_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to FOMC Outcome for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1701.32 // -12.32 // -0.72%

Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1719.76, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1686.57, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion level, and is reinforced by a horizontal pivot at 1677.05. Alternatively, a push higher through near-term resistance exposes the December 2 high at 1763.00.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_FOMC_Outcome_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to FOMC Outcome for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $33.66 // -0.63 // -1.84%

Prices remain locked between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements at 32.97 and 34.59, respectively. Overall positioning broadly favors the downside absent a daily close above 37.48, the February 29 high and peak of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break above 34.59 initially targets 35.66, while a push through support exposes the 50% retracement at 31.67.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_FOMC_Outcome_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to FOMC Outcome for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.838 // -0.020 // -0.52%

Prices rebounded from support at 3.713, the would-be neckline of a Head and Shoulders top formation, to retest support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from mid-December (now at 3.872). A break above that on a daily closing basis would expose the January 27 high at 3.938. Alternatively, a reversal lower that takes out 3.713 exposes a measured downside target at 3.438.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Look_to_FOMC_Outcome_for_Direction_Cues_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold Look to FOMC Outcome for Direction Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.