News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Dow, Pound-Dollar, BoE Rate Decision, Fed Risk, PMIs Check out my recap of last week and preview of upcoming event risk, plus all the latest forecasts from the @DailyFX team below. Link to Analysis - $GLD $DJI $GBPUSD #Trading
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here:
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) US Dollar Outlook, Key Trend Reversals Playing Out? USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD #USD $USDCAD $AUDUSD $EURUSD $GBPUSD
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
Crude Oil Gains Before US ISM Report, Gold and Silver May Recover

Crude Oil Gains Before US ISM Report, Gold and Silver May Recover

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil, Copper Aim Higher Before Growth-Supportive US Data
  • Gold and Silver Likely to Rebound But Larger Down Trend Underway

Gold and silver prices plunged yesterday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the fall in US unemployment has been “more rapid” than the central bank expected in his semi-annual Congressional testimony, hinting a third round of asset purchases (so-called “QE3”) would not materialize. The downgrade in dovish rhetoric weighed on stock prices – boosting demand for the Dollar as a safe haven – while denting demand for metals as an alternative store of value amid fading worries about further dilution of the US money supply.

Taken together with the downgraded risk of a Eurozone-driven global credit squeeze following yesterday’s second 3-year ECB LTRO operation, Bernanke’s testimony went a long way toward laying the foundation for 2012 market environment we described in our 6-month gold forecast. As we wrote then, a stronger US recovery that negates the need for further money-printing against a backdrop of receding fears of a market-wide collapse courtesy of the Euro area is decidedly gold-negative. The same logic applies to silver, the yellow metal’s cheaper alternative. With that in mind, a near-term recovery seems likely ahead given the scope of yesterday’s selloff and the need for a correction.

Meanwhile, crude oil and copper prices are aiming higher as traders rethink the growth implications of the Bernanke testimony. Investors’ knee-jerk reaction was to sell risky assets as additional stimulus hopes faded, but that need not be a lasting response if the economy is truly able to stand on its own without further support from monetary policy. Evidence precisely to that effect is expected to cross the wires today.

The ISM Manufacturing report takes top billing, with median forecasts calling for the factory sector to expand at the fastest pace in 8 months in February. A rebound in January’s Personal Spending reading as well as continued growth in the Personal Income gauge are also in the cards. This is fueling risk appetite, with S&P 500 stock index futures on the upswing ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, and growth-linked commodities are broadly following suit.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $107.07 // +0.52 // +0.49%

Prices are stalling at support marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 106.70. A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern hints the path of least resistance favors the downside. A break lower initially exposes the 38.2% retracement of the 2/2-2/24 up leg at 104.38, followed by the 38.2% extension at 103.34. Near-term resistance is at 110.04, the 61.8% Fib expansion.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Before_US_ISM_Report_Gold_and_Silver_May_Recover_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Gains Before US ISM Report, Gold and Silver May Recover

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1696.85 // -87.38 // -4.90%

Prices reversed sharply lower, dropping to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support at 1687.97. A break below this boundary exposes the 50% level at 1656.38. Near-term resistance lines up at 1727.06, the 23.6% Fib, with a daily close above that targeting the December 2 high at 1763.00.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Before_US_ISM_Report_Gold_and_Silver_May_Recover_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Gains Before US ISM Report, Gold and Silver May Recover

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $34.68 // -2.23 // -6.03%

Prices completed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 36.99, reversing sharply lower to take out 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 34.81. Bears now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 33.15. The 34.81 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Before_US_ISM_Report_Gold_and_Silver_May_Recover_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil Gains Before US ISM Report, Gold and Silver May Recover

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.880 // -0.042 // -1.07%

Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 3.909, hinting renewed selling is ahead. Initial support lines up at 3.789, with a break below that exposing 3.696. Alternatively, a reversal higher through resistance exposes the February 9 high at 3.988.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Before_US_ISM_Report_Gold_and_Silver_May_Recover_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil Gains Before US ISM Report, Gold and Silver May Recover

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.