We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Breaking news

ECB leaves monetary policy unchanged

Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.91%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/FcASLFRNcz
  • #Gold Price Outlook: $XAUUSD Rally Entering 6th Week– $GLD Breakout Levels - https://t.co/kWu10QhVjX https://t.co/kfiimF2aYY
  • Fed's Bostic says 'the answer is no' on using negative interest rates - BBG
  • Fed's Bostic says risk of deflation not likely a problem if control of virus is established $DXY
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.37% Silver: -0.66% Oil - US Crude: -0.86% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MHCawBh8bz
  • Fed's Bostic says keeping economy closed forever is not feasible - BBG
  • Hey traders! Get your Thursday US market opening session update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/7qWjhyR91D
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.23% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.10% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/UutSyUTZ2r
  • So @PrivilegeUK, our car insurer, says go to @Autoglass to replace our broken windscreen. Autoglass says it doesn't have one for our car. Privilege says we can't go to our local garage that does have one unless we pay. Come on guys. Please sort this out
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.01% France 40: -0.03% FTSE 100: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.47% US 500: -0.66% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/5gxVUowdSz
Crude Oil, Metals Set Sights on Bernanke for QE3 Outlook Cues

Crude Oil, Metals Set Sights on Bernanke for QE3 Outlook Cues

2012-02-02 09:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Finally Breaks Down as IAEA Strikes Positive Tone on Iran Talks
  • Gold Looks to Bernanke Testimony for QE3 Clues with Inflation Outlook Key
  • Copper Bounce May Falter as Dovish Fed Rhetoric Fails to Surprise Markets

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $97.61 // -0.87 // -0.88%

Crude oil’s decoupling from risk sentiment trends continued yesterday as prices declined even as supportive manufacturing data from China, Europe and the US came across the wires, with prices finally cracking support at 97.70 after senior IAEA officials confirmed expressed optimism following their weekend trip to Iran. Another trip has been planned for late February, easing fears that Tehran’s controversial nuclear program will lead to the eruption of overt conflict with Western powers.

Looking ahead, growth-related issues are likely to return into focus as the spotlight points to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony. The outcome will likely need to materially advance the case for near-term QE3 to prove market-moving, in which case it stands to push prices higher. On balance, this seems like a tall order after last week’s overtly dovish FOMC outing, hinting at a muted response as traders dig in their heels ahead of Friday’s US jobs report. Near-term support is now at 95.65, marked by the top of a previously broken falling channel, while the 97.70 level has been recast as resistance.

Crude_Oil_Metals_Set_Sights_on_Bernanke_for_QE3_Outlook_Cues_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Metals Set Sights on Bernanke for QE3 Outlook Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1743.40 // +5.80 // +0.33%

Inflation expectations remain in focus for gold prices, with Ben Bernanke’s testimony clearly the most significant item of concern. Prices soared after last week’s lurch to the dovish side of the spectrum following the FOMC policy announcement and have been buoyant since. This suggests much of the Fed’s accommodative stance has been priced in already, meaning there is probably a high bar needed to be overcome on how much more dovish Bernanke must take his rhetoric to engineer substantial upside momentum.

Prices are testing above resistance at 1746.10, with a confirmed break on a daily close above the level exposing 1802.80. However, negative RSI divergence warns that bullish momentum is fading and hints a reversal is ahead. Near-term term support lines up at 1716.17, a previously broken rising channel top.

Crude_Oil_Metals_Set_Sights_on_Bernanke_for_QE3_Outlook_Cues_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Metals Set Sights on Bernanke for QE3 Outlook Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $33.69 // +0.52 // +1.55%

As with gold, inflation expectations are in focus for silver prices, with both metals trading on investors’ appraisal of their utility as store-of-value hedges. Needless to say, Ben Bernanke’s testimony is critical here as well over the coming 24 hours. The technical picture remains cautiously bearish after prices completed a Three Inside Down candlestick pattern below resistance at 34.03, hinting at losses ahead. A break below support at 32.78 exposes rising trend line support set from late December, now at 31.96.

Crude_Oil_Metals_Set_Sights_on_Bernanke_for_QE3_Outlook_Cues_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Metals Set Sights on Bernanke for QE3 Outlook Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.842 // +0.052 // +1.37%

Ben Bernanke’s testimony is central for the copper prices as with most assets in the coming hours, with the onus on the Fed Chairman to stoke the economic growth outlook and perpetuate yesterday’s mild recovery. Near-term support remains at the top of a rising channel set from mid-December, now at 3.768, while resistance lines up at 3.895. An as-yet uncontested Evening Star candlestick pattern warns a top may be in place.

Crude_Oil_Metals_Set_Sights_on_Bernanke_for_QE3_Outlook_Cues_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Metals Set Sights on Bernanke for QE3 Outlook Cues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.