News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here:
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and crude oil prices have recently made critical advances to the upside. Is retail positioning supporting the case for further upside momentum?
  • An improving economic backdrop is bolstering crude oil prices and in turn, the Canadian Dollar. Still, the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar continues to move higher. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via
Crude Oil, Gold Under Pressure as Returning Risk Aversion Boosts Dollar

Crude Oil, Gold Under Pressure as Returning Risk Aversion Boosts Dollar

2012-01-11 09:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Losses Likely as Risk Appetite Evaporates, Beige Book on Tap
  • Gold to Face Selling Pressure as Safe-Haven Flows Boost US Dollar Anew

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $102.24 // +0.93 // +0.92%

S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing sharply lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting crude oil prices are likely to decline amid a return to risk aversion. The sudden about-face in sentiment trends seems to underscore our suspicion that yesterday’s sharp recovery across the spectrum of risky assets reflected a correction driven by profit-taking rather than the emergence of true optimism in the macro environment.

Looking ahead, the spotlight falls on the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book regional economic conditions survey. US data has clearly shown signs of steady (if slow) improvement over recent months and traders will look to the release as fodder for hopes that an accelerating recovery in the world’s top economy will help offset headwinds from slowing growth in Europe and Asia. The official set of weekly DOE inventory figures is also on tap.

On the technical front, prices remain locked between support at 101.28 and resistance at 103.35, the November 17 high. A downward breakout clears the way for a challenge of the 100.00 figure and 97.89. Alternatively, an upswing that takes out resistance on a daily closing basis initially exposes 106.05.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Under_Pressure_as_Returning_Risk_Aversion_Boosts_Dollar_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold Under Pressure as Returning Risk Aversion Boosts Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1632.35 // +20.78 // +1.29%

The US Dollar remains the leading pace-setter of gold price action, acting as a transmission mechanism for overall sentiment trends. With that in mind, the return of risk aversion telegraphed in S&P 500 index futures’ positioning points to recovering safe-haven demand for the benchmark currency, amounting to de-facto downward pressure on gold prices. As with crude oil however, there may be scope for a supportive Beige Book release to counterbalance bearish momentum (at least to some extent).

Sizing up the chart setup, pricesclosed narrowly above resistance at 1629.57, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move higher to challenge the 50% level at 1662.65 is ahead. The narrow margin of the breakout as well as the failure to overcome the December 21 high 1641.62 makes the bullish argument somewhat suspect however, hinting it may prove to be head-fake. A break back through support initially exposes 1609.05.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Under_Pressure_as_Returning_Risk_Aversion_Boosts_Dollar_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold Under Pressure as Returning Risk Aversion Boosts Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $29.97 // +0.96 // +3.29%

As with gold, silver appears set to decline over the coming session as the US Dollar returns to the offensive amid returning risk aversion. The technical setup has turned cautiously supportive however, with prices taking out resistance at 29.79 marked by a horizontal barrier and the top of a falling channel set from early November. The next boundary on the upside is 31.04, although a break back below 29.79 on a daily closing basis would suggest yesterday’s move may have been a head-fake (as we suspect with gold). The larger 26.05-35.66 range remains intact.

Crude_Oil_Gold_Under_Pressure_as_Returning_Risk_Aversion_Boosts_Dollar_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold Under Pressure as Returning Risk Aversion Boosts Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.