We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are some factors affecting $GBP as we head into 2020, quarter one? Download your Sterling fundamental forecast with @nickcawley1 here to find out: https://t.co/YfDSYSATK9 https://t.co/ANFLIuDY4J
  • Trading Global Markets new #podcast features @DailyFX Anlayst @PeterHanksFX , who discusses what assets would benefit in the next #recession. Tune into this new podcast episode hosted by @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/llKzvZGDpQ
  • The #Euro remains weak against a range of currencies and any move higher is struggling to gain traction as the single currency continues to be sold-off. Get your #EUR technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/9B2m0kmd4d https://t.co/ZENxpC59mP
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
  • The $NZD is inching toward support guiding gains in the fourth quarter of 2019. A break may set the stage for long-term bearish trend resumption. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/bnlx4RJ8oV https://t.co/d60YziMYnO
Crude Oil Gains Despite Negative News Flow, Gold to Follow Stocks Higher

Crude Oil Gains Despite Negative News Flow, Gold to Follow Stocks Higher

2011-03-30 06:33:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Commodities – Energy

Crude Oil Gains Despite Negative News Flow

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $104.79 // +$0.81 // +0.78%

Commentary: Crude oil prices have rebuilt a significant positive short-term correlation with the MSCI World Stock index, suggesting the spotlight has shifted from the crisis in the Middle East toward demand expectations. With that in mind, explaining today’s advance is a tall order considering a host of negative factors that ought to have sunk risk appetite, from the downgrades of Greece and Portugal at S&P to a sharp drop in US Consumer Confidence, which fell for the first time in six months to the lowest since December. Preliminary inventory figures from API also didn’t prove supportive, showing crude stocks rose to the highest in four months last week. Inexplicably, some news outlets chalked up the advance to reports that Saudi Arabia – the world’s top oil exporter – was planning to boost the number of operating drilling rigs by 28 percent, a development that reasonably seems to boost supply and ought to be putting downward pressure on prices. On balance, one possible explanation for the advance may be the steady decline in trading volumes in the WTI contract and world stock markets alike, with thin conditions contributing to erratic price action. Looking ahead, a preliminary reading on the US labor market from ADP and the official set of inventory figures from the DOE are in focus, although it seems to be anybody’s guess how price action will respond to the results given today’s performance.

Technical Outlook: Prices have broken higher out of a near-term falling channel to meet resistance at $104.83. A pullback from this juncture has taken crude lower to retest the channel top as support, a barrier reinforced by the $104.00 figure. On balance, positioning is generally bullish, with a break through $104.83 and the $105.00 figure initially exposing $105.60. Only a sustained break below $104.00 would materially change the bias back into the bears’ favor, targeting an initial decline to $103.60.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Despite_Negative_News_Flow_Gold_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_body_032911_OIL.png, Crude Oil Gains Despite Negative News Flow, Gold to Follow Stocks Higher

Commodities – Metals

Gold Poised to Follow Stocks Higher

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1418.50 // -$1.90 // -0.19%

Commentary: Gold looked past its increasingly firm positive relationship with risk appetite, edging lower as three consecutive days of declines in ETF holdings – a proxy for investment demand – continued to weigh on prices. The overall uptrend in holdings in place over the past month remains intact however and the increasingly correlation between spot and the MSCI World Stock Index is likely to reassert its dominance. Shares soared in Asia and stock index futures tracking top European and US exchanges are firmly in positive territory, hinting the yellow metal is poised to rebound.

Technical Outlook: Prices are stalling following a re-test of resistance-turned-support at a falling trend line set from the March 2 session high. A break lower exposes support at $1393.85, while a bounce opens the door for a retest of $1439.95.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Despite_Negative_News_Flow_Gold_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_body_032911_GLD.png, Crude Oil Gains Despite Negative News Flow, Gold to Follow Stocks Higher

Spot Silver (NY Close): $37.05 // -$0.10 // -0.27%

Commentary: As with gold, the increasingly significant correlation between silver and the MSCI World Stock index suggests the metal is due to rebound from recent weakness as stock index futures point to broad-based gains across European and US exchanges. Silver ETF holdings jumped to a fresh record high last week and the gold/silver ratio has continued to trend firmly lower, suggesting the cheaper metal will continue to outperform its more expensive counterpart.

Technical Outlook: Prices are consolidating having broken out of a rising channel carved out over the past two weeks. Initial resistance lines up at $37.15, with a break higher exposing the $37.66-38.15 area. Support stands at $36.50, with a drop below that clearing the way for a downside challenge of the $36.00 figure.

Crude_Oil_Gains_Despite_Negative_News_Flow_Gold_to_Follow_Stocks_Higher_body_032911_SLV.png, Crude Oil Gains Despite Negative News Flow, Gold to Follow Stocks Higher

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.