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Crude Profit Taking Picks up Pace, Gold Struggles Near $1350

Crude Profit Taking Picks up Pace, Gold Struggles Near $1350

2011-02-08 04:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sumit Roy,
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Commodities – Energy

Crude Profit Taking Picks up Pace

Crude Oil (WTI) - $89.12 // $0.09 // 0.10%

Commentary: Crude oil sold off on Monday as traders gained confidence that the unrest in Egypt would not have a major impact on crude oil production or transportation. WTI lost $1.55, or 1.74%, to settle at $87.48, while Brent shed $0.58, or 0.58%, to settle at $99.25. Brent is now down about $4 since last week’s peak over $103.

As we wrote yesterday, crude oil looks ripe for profit taking given the enormous gains we have seen recently and the lack of economic data this week. But even so, fundamentals remain supportive given the robust global economic outlook and supply-side risks that seem to pop up intermittently. Thus, we would be looking at corrections as buying opportunities. A compelling long entry for Brent would be the high-$80’s, low-$90’s area, in our view.

Technical Outlook: Prices have dropped through support at $88.06, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from January’s low, with sellers poised to challenge the bottom of a major rising channel set from late August (now at $86.04). The 61.8% level has been recast as near-term support.

Crude_Profit_Taking_Picks_up_Pace_Gold_Struggles_Near_1350_body_02082011_OIL.png, Crude Profit Taking Picks up Pace, Gold Struggles Near $1350

Commodities – Metals

Gold Struggles Near $1350

Gold - $1347.22 // $1.63 // 0.12%

Commentary: Gold price action continues to be muted, as the metal rose by $2.45, or 0.18%, to settle at $1351.30 on Monday. ETF holdings have not recovered; in fact, they moved to a new 8-month low on Monday, almost 3 million troy ounces below their peak. We are extremely wary of gold given the building recovery in developed market economies and the prospect of interest rate hikes sooner rather than later.

Technical Outlook: Prices continue to stall ahead of support-turned-resistance at 1361.39 after breaking higher out of a falling channel set from early January. Renewed selling sees initial support at the channel’s upper boundary, now at $1326.44. Alternatively, an extension of upward momentum that takes out immediate resistance exposes $1387.90.

Crude_Profit_Taking_Picks_up_Pace_Gold_Struggles_Near_1350_body_02082011_GLD.png, Crude Profit Taking Picks up Pace, Gold Struggles Near $1350

Silver - $29.15 // $0.02 // 0.05%

Commentary: Silver rose by $0.26, or 0.88%, to settle at $29.39, as the metal’s strong outperformance to gold continues.

The gold/silver moved lower to 46, back to multi-year lows. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative value/performance of the two precious metals. A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio indicates silver outperformance)

Technical Outlook: Prices appear to have narrowly taken out resistance at $29.39, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1/3-1/28 downswing. From here, the door is open to challenge the 76.4% retracement at $30.09. The 61.8% level has been recast as near-term support.

Crude_Profit_Taking_Picks_up_Pace_Gold_Struggles_Near_1350_body_02082011_SLV.png, Crude Profit Taking Picks up Pace, Gold Struggles Near $1350

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