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Crude Consolidates Recent Gains, Gold Tries to Keep Rebound Alive

Crude Consolidates Recent Gains, Gold Tries to Keep Rebound Alive

2011-02-07 04:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sumit Roy,
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Commodities – Energy

Crude Consolidates Recent Gains

Crude Oil (WTI) - $89.12 // $0.09 // 0.10%

Commentary: Crude oil is kicking off the week slightly to the upside, after falling toward the end of last week. The fact that the U.S. unemployment rate hit the lowest level since April, 2009 was encouraging, but given that oil prices are near $100, a lot has already been priced in. A sell-off toward the mid-$90’s in Brent wouldn’t be surprising, but expect prices to be well-supported as long as the economic outlook remains this bullish. The economic data for the coming week is rather uneventful, thus trading action will be dictated by the push and pull of upside momentum and profit taking considerations.

Technical Outlook: Prices have taken out support at $89.89, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from January’s low, after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formation below resistance at $92.58 (December’s swing high). From here, near-term support stands at the 50% Fib ($88.97), with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at $88.06. The 38.2% mark has been recast as immediate resistance.

Crude_Consolidates_Recent_Gains_Gold_Tries_to_Keep_Rebound_Alive_body_02072011_OIL.png, Crude Consolidates Recent Gains, Gold Tries to Keep Rebound Alive

Commodities – Metals

Gold Tries to Keep Rebound Alive

Gold - $1347.22 // $1.63 // 0.12%

Commentary: Gold is selling off a bit after last week’s rally to the mid-$1300 level. Prices are attempting to stage a comeback after the most recent $100 peak-to-trough correction, but with investment demand so weak, it will be difficult for the metal to hold onto gains. We continue to be extremely wary of initiating long positions until more definitive signs of a bottom.

Technical Outlook: Prices have stalled ahead of support-turned-resistance at 1361.39 after breaking higher out of a falling channel set from early January. Continued selling sees initial support at the channel’s upper boundary, now at $1330.20. Alternatively, renewed upward momentum that takes out immediate resistance exposes $1387.90.

Crude_Consolidates_Recent_Gains_Gold_Tries_to_Keep_Rebound_Alive_body_02072011_GLD.png, Crude Consolidates Recent Gains, Gold Tries to Keep Rebound Alive

Silver - $29.15 // $0.02 // 0.05%

Commentary: Silver continues to significant outperform gold, with prices rising five of the last six sessions. Whether this performance is sustainable in the event that gold continues to sell off remains to be seen, but it bears watching.

The gold/silver moved lower to 46.2, but remains above the four-year low near 46 set late last year. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative value/performance of the two precious metals. A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio indicates silver outperformance)

Technical Outlook: Prices have continued to edge higher after taking out resistance at $28.82, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1/3-1/28 downswing, to challenge the 61.8% level at $29.39. A break above here exposes the $30.00 figure. The 50% Fib is now acting as near-term support.

Crude_Consolidates_Recent_Gains_Gold_Tries_to_Keep_Rebound_Alive_body_02072011_SLV.png, Crude Consolidates Recent Gains, Gold Tries to Keep Rebound Alive

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